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NFL receiving prop – Matt Perrault of The Bostonian VS The Book is targeting a match up in Monday night’s Houston at Pittsburgh game. Pittsburgh TE Pat Freiermuth has two factors going against him.
- Houston’s excellent pass defense is particularly good against tight ends, allowing 6.3 yards per target.
- Pittsburgh WR DK Metcalf returns after a two game suspension, which will limit targets for the tight end.
Matt likes Pat Freiermuth under 34.5 receiving yards, -114 available at FanDuel. Check out Matt’s show The Bostonian VS The Book on which I made an appearance on Friday.
NFL interception prop – New England QB Drake Maye has been excellent in his second season, leading his team to a 14-3 record. He plays with a calm that doesn’t let defenses rattle him.
One way this shows up in the numbers is in bad balls, or the sum of interceptions and passes defended. Bad ball rate captures how often a QB throws the football into a dangerous situation and plays a crucial role in my interception model. Maye has had a 9.9% bad ball rate this season, much better than the 12.5% league average.
My model gives a 56% chance Maye does not throw a pick. While the markets have not shown value on Maye this season, FanDuel does have -120 for Maye to not throw a pick (54.5% break even probability).
Indiana vs Miami, College Football Championship Game – To show the coaching job that Curt Cignetti has done, consider WR Elijah Sarratt. He started his college football career in 2022 at FCS St. Francis (PA) before transferring to James Madison with Cignetti the next season.
Sarratt has been crucial part of this Indiana offensive machine the past two seasons. In two games against an elite Oregon pass defense, Sarratt has been unstoppable, catching 15 of 19 targets for 196 yards and 3 touchdowns.
No matter what happens against Miami, Cignetti has done the best college football coaching job ever. Before the semi-final games, I would have made Indiana a 4.9 point favorite over Miami.
Members of The Power Rank will get an updated prediction later today, as I also need to figure out an adjustment for Miami playing in their home stadium.
NFL playoff trends – Based on playoff data back to 2001, Carl Sack of KillerSports.com noticed that Wild Card playoff games have gone under in 59% of games (62-43). If it’s the first meeting between the two teams, this rate goes up to 76% (29-9).
I’m guessing that teams get more conservative once the playoffs start. They do not want to make a critical mistake that can tip the game.
These four Wild Card games feature teams that haven’t played each other:
- Buffalo at Jacksonville, 51.5
- San Francisco at Philadelphia, 44.5
- Los Angeles Chargers at New England, 46
- Houston at Pittsburgh, 38
Do not bet a game only because of a trend, but it can be helpful with your handicapping.
Football humor – When asked why he could change the culture at Indiana, Curt Cignetti said he wins. “Google me.” Now it’s a part of a rap song.
The best line: “He doesn’t chase stars. He forges them.”
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
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