Looking for sharp football betting action this weekend? Your curated list of tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.
NFL receptions prop – Professional bettor Hitman notes a change in the Buffalo Bills offense. RB James Cook ran 23 routes last week against Cincinnati, his highest total since Week 5.
Hitman sees a continuation of this trend this week for Buffalo as they play a huge division game against New England. More routes for Cook comes at the expense of RB Ty Johnson.
Hitman likes Ty Johnson under 1.5 receptions, +116 available at FanDuel. Follow Hitman for all of his professional NFL insights.
Vanderbilt vs Iowa, College Football Bowl Game – Professional bettor Eddie Walls likes the matchups for Vanderbilt in this game.
- Iowa’s offensive line might have three starters opt out against a strong Vanderbilt run defense.
- Vanderbilt’s rush attack has a strong SEC level offensive line that will have success against Iowa run defense.
Vanderbilt QB Diego Pavia will play in his final game. In addition, Vanderbilt projects to have no opt outs while Iowa may not have up to eight starters. Eddie likes Vanderbilt -5.5 (available at FanDuel) against Iowa in the ReliaQuest Bowl on New Year’s Eve.
Follow professional bettor Eddie Walls for college football and NBA insights as well as betting wisdom.
NFL interception prop – Dallas QB Dak Prescott has had an amazing season, and part of the reason is a 2.1% interception rate, better than the 2.2% NFL average. However, Prescott does put the football in dangerous situations a lot.
I track this by bad ball rate, or the sum of interceptions and passes defended (plays in which the defense gets a hand on the football) per attempt. Prescott has had a bad ball rate of 14.5% this season compared to the NFL average of 12.6%. This is third worst among active starters (4th if you include Geno Smith).
My model gives a 60% chance he throws a pick against Minnesota. There is value in Dak Prescott over 0.5 interceptions, -125 at FanDuel.
Oregon Ducks football – Dan Lanning’s team has flown under the radar this season, as a week 7 home loss to Indiana ended up putting them out of the Big Ten championship race. Still, Oregon has the #5 seed and a 13.1% chance to win the national championship by my best numbers.
I’ve been impressed with Lanning’s four year tenure at Oregon. For example, his defense lost every starter in the secondary from last season. No matter, the Oregon pass defense ranks 3rd in my yards per pass attempt adjusted for opposing quarterbacks this season. Safety Dillon Thieneman transferred from Purdue and now projects as a 2nd or 3rd round pick in the 2026 NFL draft.
I put Lanning’s success in a different context in a minute video this week.
Football humor – 44 year old Philip Rivers might start for the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday. When asked about his weight earlier this week, he said “I’m not sure. How about that? That’s an honest answer.”
QB Riley Leonard is not on the injury report anymore, but the sportsbooks have markets up for Rivers.
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
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