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NFL player prop – On the Move the Line podcast, Connor Allen talked about the market of 30.5 pass attempts for Tampa Bay QB Baker Mayfield. He noted that Mayfield hasn’t thrown as much the past three games, as his pass rate has been 6.6% less than expected.
Two other factors also point towards the under:
- Tampa Bay is a 8.5 point favorite at home over a New Orleans team starting a rookie QB.
- RB Bucky Irving returned last week, which gives the Bucs a better run game.
Connor likes Baker Mayfield under 30.5 pass attempts, -120 available at FanDuel. I highly recommend listening to Connor and Ryan Noonan on the Move the Line NFL props show every Friday.
Alabama vs Georgia, SEC Championship game – For the regular season game between these two teams in Week 5, the market closed with a total of 54 points. Earlier this week, the market had a total of 47.5 points for this game.
This seemed strange, as weather is not an issue on the indoor turf at Mercedes-Benz stadium in Atlanta. In addition, Alabama edge LT Overton, who leads the team with 5 sacks, will miss this game (so will Georgia C Drew Bobo).
Last season, there was a similar drop in the total. Georgia and Texas had a regular season total of 57 points to 51 points in the SEC championship game. They went under in a 22-19 win for Georgia in the title game.
However, the market has moved to 48.5, and my model predicts 55.6 points. If you must bet something on this game, this suggests the over.
NFL insights – On the Establish the Run podcast, host Adam Levitan noted that Arizona QB Jacoby Brissett has dropped back more than 45 times in six of his seven starts. That is an outrageous statistic especially since the market for Brissett pass attempts has not exceeded 37.5, even for this Week 14.
Adam digs out these insights to help with fantasy football, and he likes the idea of playing WR Michael Wilson if Marvin Harrison Jr. doesn’t play. However, this volume also impacts player props like passing yards.
My model prediction of 257 passing yards for Brissett is based on 37.5 attempts, and this suggests that the model is too low. In addition, Arizona is a 8.5 point underdog. This suggests value in Jacoby Brissett over 250.5 passing yards even against an excellent Los Angeles Rams defense.
College basketball predictions – Here is a sample of predictions available to members.
- Michigan will beat Rutgers by 25.0 points at home. Michigan opens up Big Ten play after beating Auburn and Gonzaga by 35 points on average in their last two games.
- Arizona will beat Auburn by 9.8 points at home. Tommy Lloyd has another strong Arizona team that has already notched wins over Florida and Connecticut this season.
- Houston will beat Florida State by 15.6 points at home. Houston stumbled against Tennessee this season, but Kelvin Sampson’s team looks solid again. I consider this a home game since they are playing in Houston although not on their usual home court.
These predictions are available to members of The Power Rank the day before the games.
Penn State humor – “We’re searching for a coach and losing recruits. Used to be a playoff team, now we’re looking like Purdue.” I almost never post humor more than three minutes long, but this song on the Penn State coaching search by Tailgate Tunes is pure gold.
FYI, the CEO of Crumbl Cookies helped BYU retain coach Kalani Sitake, and then former Penn State coach James Franklin served those cookies at signing day this week.
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
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