Ohio State travels to Michigan in an attempt to put four years of frustration behind them. Michigan has won the last four meetings in college football’s greatest rivalry but is a big underdog in this game.
Michigan’s offense has shown promise under true freshman QB Bryce Underwood. While he has made inevitable mistakes like two interceptions against Northwestern, he has also led the 20th best pass offense by my adjusted yards per pass attempt.
True freshman WR Andrew Marsh has played a huge role in this success with an excellent 3.0 yards per route run. Marsh barely played the first four games of the season.
The Michigan defense has overall be solid, as they rank 16th in my adjusted yards per play. Overall, Michigan ranks 18th in my member college football rankings.
Ohio State is the top team in the nation, as my numbers agree with the college football playoff committee. It seems like they have snoozed their way to this game as no Big Ten team has come within 17 points or fewer points of beating Ohio State this season.
Ohio State has the NFL talent to sustain their rank. Safety Caleb Downs seemed like the top Buckeye to get picked in the 2026 NFL draft. However, now it seems like edge Avrell Reese will get taken first. Reese’s 8 sacks is second on the team behind Caden Curry’s 9.
WR Carnell Tate also seems like a 1st round pick, although he’s not even the best receiver on this team. Jeremiah Smith is not eligible to get drafted until the 2027 draft. Both players are questionable for this game but would presumably do anything possible to play.
Oh yeah, QB Julian Sayin might win the Heisman. He has led the top pass offense by my adjusted passing success rate and must be an early favorite as the top pick of the 2027 NFL draft.
My primary college football model has Ohio State by 9.3 points on the road which seems too low to me. Based on my adjusted numbers for this season, I’d make Ohio State about a 12 point favorite.
I’m surprised the market has moved towards Michigan, as Ohio State is now -9.5 at some books. As long as at least Smith plays, I’d lean Ohio State -9.5 at the soft sports books out there.
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
Looking for sharp sports betting action this weekend?
5-Nugget Saturday is my curated list of tips and analytics. The bets come from not only myself but also other trusted sources in the industry.
To get this free service delivered straight into your inbox, enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”
Leave a Reply