Looking for sharp sports betting action this weekend? Your curated list of tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.
College football, Week 12 – Eddie Walls is a professional bettor who strives to know everything about 136 FBS teams in beating the college football markets. On the Right Angle Sports show, he talked about his best bet on Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern.
The Coastal Carolina offense has changed since QB Samari Collier became the starter the last three games. They are averaging 43 points per game since the change with a run heavy attack, and Eddie has Georgia Southern at 135th in stopping the run.
Along with a Coastal Carolina defense that can’t stop the pass, Eddie makes the total in this game 63 points. The market has moved from 59 when this show dropped, but there is still value in Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern over 60.5, -105 available at FanDuel (game kicks off at 6pm Eastern time).
It is worth listening to all 18 minutes of the show, as Eddie describes how he works in subjective information on Notre Dame at Pittsburgh and how to bet Florida at Ole Miss. Also, follow Eddie Walls for all his college football and betting wisdom.
NFL passing yards prop – Lamar Jackson has been back for Baltimore the past two games, and he has been efficient in throwing the football in 2025. However, two reasons suggest that Jackson will not throw for many yards against Cleveland:
- Cleveland has a solid pass defense, ranked 11th in my yards per pass attempt adjusted for opposing quarterbacks.
- As a 7.5 point favorite, Jackson might have a second half game script that involves more running. The market has 25.5 pass attempts for Jackson.
Based on my adjusted metrics, my model predicts 173.8 passing yards. There is value in Lamar Jackson under 209.5 passing yards against Cleveland (game kicks at 4:25pm Eastern on Sunday).
NFL receiving yards prop – Sharp sports bettor Matthew Freedman often looks at fantasy analysis for an edge. This week, he likes the following tip about Atlanta RB Bijan Robinson.
Robinson has a 24% target share against zone coverage this season compared to 10% against man coverage. This week, Atlanta plays Carolina, the second most heavy zone defense at 80%.
Matt likes Bijan Robinson over 36.5 receiving yards, -114 available at FanDuel. Follow Matt Freedman for all of his NFL insights.
NFL scoring – Scoring is up in the NFL, and Nate Silver broke down the primary reasons in an excellent thread:
- Field goals of 55+ yards has tripled since 2022.
- The new kick off rules have given offenses better starting field position. With the longer field goals, the field has been shortened by 10-15 yards.
- Analytics has won, and teams are going for it on 4th down more.
Nate has more details in a full, free post on his Substack Silver Bulletin.
Football humor – I loved this thirteen second clip from a Chicago Bears fan on his division leading team. No words, just music. h/t to my buddy HJ, a Lions fan, for this one.
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
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