Looking for sharp sports betting action this weekend? Your curated list of tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.
College football player prop – Undefeated Texas A&M travels to Missouri in a pivotal SEC match up. For Texas A&M, top RB Le’Veon Moss went down with an injury but Rueben Owens II has stepped up. Before only 8 carries in a blow out at LSU, Owens averaged 17.3 carries in the three previous games.
In addition, Missouri will be without starting QB Beau Pribula, and the market has Texas A&M -7 on the road. A second half lead would mean more carries for Owens as the primary running back.
My model uses a running back’s yards per carry and adjusts for opposing defenses. Based on 17 carries, the model predicts 76.5 rushing yards for Owens. There is value in Rueben Bell over 58.5 rushing yards (game kicks off at 3:30pm Eastern).
NFL player prop – Professional bettor Rob Pizzola does not think that the New York Giants pass offense is likely to generate explosive plays. Rookie QB Jaxson Dart has one of the lowest deep ball rates in the NFL, and the absence of C John Michael Schmitz will hinder the pass protection needed to go deep.
The Giants play a Chicago defense that plays a lot of zone coverage and ranks near the top of the NFL in limiting passes over 20 yards. In addition, the weather forecast calls for wind gusts up to 30 miles per hour.
Rob likes Jaxson Dart’s longest completion under 33.5 yards. Get more of Rob’s data driven NFL insights on the Forward Progress YouTube channel.
College basketball predictions – Members of The Power Rank get access to college basketball spread predictions all season. Here is a sample from this first Saturday:
- St. John’s will beat Alabama by 3.5 at home. Expectations are high for Rick Pitino in his third season at St. John’s despite a new roster. Alabama starts an insane stretch of games in which they play Purdue, Illinois and Gonzaga after this game.
- Michigan State will beat Arkansas by 0.4 points at home. John Calipari starts his second season at Arkansas at 14th in the preseason AP poll, a powerful predictor of team strength even in the tournament. Tom Izzo starts his 31st season at Michigan State at 22nd in the same poll despite returning a sizeable chunk of last year’s Elite Eight.
- Gonzaga will beat Oklahoma by 10.5 points at home. Gonzaga started the season higher in Ken Pomeroy’s rankings (8th) than the preseason AP poll (21st).
Members of The Power Rank will have access to Sunday’s games by noon Eastern today, as the predictions come out the day before the games.
Drake Maye – I had my doubts about New England’s second year QB, but Maye has proved me wrong so far this season. In my adjusted passing success rate, Maye ranks 4th among active starting quarterbacks.
In addition, Maye has performed without a stellar receiving group. Let’s look at his top targets:
- 31 year old WR Stefon Diggs coming off a torn ACL injury.
- 30 year old TE Hunter Henry.
- Third year WR Kayshon Boutte, who had never had a better than NFL average yards per route run until this season.
Boutte is out for New England’s game at Tampa Bay, but Maye might make a star out of the next receiver. While this will only be Maye’s 20th NFL start, the data and circumstances suggests he could become one of the NFL’s elite quarterbacks.
Sports humor – The Dallas Cowboys got dominated on Monday night by Jacoby Brissett and the Arizona Cardinals. Betting influencer Tayler Mathis said:
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
These nuggets were sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:
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Other emails offer analysis of college football and NFL games that founder Ed Feng has bet and a sample of predictions usually saved for paying members of The Power Rank.
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