The Indianapolis Colts have been a revelation in the 2025 season, something that no one saw coming. Slated as a bottom ten NFL team to start the season, the Colts have a league best 6-1 record after seven weeks of action.
Many players deserve credit for this revival. The Giants cut QB Daniel Jones last season, and he couldn’t really make it off the practice squad in Minnesota. After winning a training camp battle with Anthony Richardson, he has been fantastic as the top QB in my adjusted passing success rate.
RB Jonathan Taylor has been spectacular as well with 11 touchdowns and 4.7 yards per carry. However, there is a third player making an impact, and his presence also has its consequences for a college football team: TE Tyler Warren.
Warren was supposed to be a top 10 pick in the NFL draft and the first TE off the board. Instead, he slipped to Indianapolis with the 14th pick.
This season, Warren has commanded 45 targets, only one less than team leader Michael Pittman. In addition, Warren has averaged 2.25 yards per route route, much higher than the 1.3 league average for tight ends.
Warren’s emergence in the NFL also left a unfillable void at Penn State. Last season, the tight end had 135 targets from QB Drew Allar, almost double the next receiver.
You can’t put the demise of Penn State and the firing of coach James Franklin on one player, but let’s look at Allar’s numbers when I take his passing success rate and adjust for opposing defenses. These are Allar’s expected numbers against an average FBS defense.
- 2024: 53.3% success rate.
- 2025: 46.1% success rate.
The college football average is 41% the past two seasons. Allar had elite numbers last season, but he dropped off in 2025 before an ankle injury ended his season.
In making a prediction for the Colts, I’ve thrown out the preseason prior. I do this in rare occasions, such as last season with Washington and rookie QB Jayden Daniels. With the preseason prior, my model had Indianapolis by 8.2 points over Tennessee at home. Now, the model gives a predicted spread of 13.3 points.
Indianapolis does have issues on defense.
- CB Xavien Howard was terrible and then retired.
- CB Charvarius Ward was excellent but is on injured reserve until later this season.
- CB Kenny Moore II has been in and out of the lineup and is questionable against Tennessee.
There may be future opportunities to fade Indianapolis, particularly in the playoffs. However, a Week 9 game against probably the worst team in the NFL is not one of them.
Football betting with a PhD edge
This article was sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter at noon Eastern on Friday, October 24, 2025. This newsletter is a free service that strives to be:
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