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College football player prop – While RB Kewan Lacy gets the vast majority of carries for Mississippi, he only averages of 4.7 yards per carry (5.06 college football average). Lacy has had a few big games against Washington State and Kentucky but now faces an elite Georgia run defense.
In my adjusted yards per carry, Georgia ranks 2nd in the nation. The weakness in this Geogia defense is against the pass, and Mississippi most likely relies on the arm of QB Trinidad Chambliss in this game.
Even assuming a robust 22 carries for Lacy, my model predicts 61.9 rushing yards. There is value in Kewan Lacy under 72.5 rushing yards at FanDuel, although there are better numbers at other books. Ole Miss at Georgia kicks off at 3:30pm Eastern.
NFL receiving prop – Ryan Noonan of 4for4 Bets sees a bounce back game for Denver WR Courtland Sutton after only 17 receiving yards on one catch against the New York Jets last week.
Sutton excels against man coverage, as QB Bo Nix targets him on 28.3% of his routes against this coverage (11.7% versus zone). Based on FTN data, Sutton has been Nix’s first read on 25.3% pass plays against man coverage. He faces a New York Giants defense that plays man coverage at the fourth highest rate in the NFL.
Ryan likes Courtland Sutton over 63.5 receiving yards, -114 available at FanDuel but a much better number is available at BetMGM. Follow Ryan Noonan for all of his NFL insights, especially his tackle props as the market opens up over the weekend.
NFL passing yards prop – Don’t let that game winning drive against Kansas City fool you: Trevor Lawrence hasn’t been good this season.
To quantify this, let’s take his yards per pass attempt, which includes negative plays from sacks, and adjust for opposing defenses with The Power Rank algorithm. Lawrence is expected to throw for 5.72 yards per pass attempt against an average NFL defense, worse than the 6.18 league average.
In contrast, the Rams pass defense has been excellent and ranks 4th in these same calculations. The secondary is solid, and Jared Verse and Byron Young bring constant pressure. My new passing yards model based on these QB adjusted numbers predicts 202.1 passing yards for Lawrence.
There is value in Trevor Lawrence under 222.5 passing yards against the Los Angeles Rams in London, -112 available at DraftKings.
Buffalo Bills – The Bills started the season 4-0. Part of this success was a +3 turnover margin as they had a single Josh Allen pick compared to four take aways.
Since that roaring start, Buffalo has lost their last two games to New England and Atlanta. Heading into the bye this week, coach Sean McDermott responded by saying, “We’ve got to start over and start from ground zero and figure this thing out and work our tails off to do it.”
However, there is only so much hard work can do against inevitable regression in turnovers. During these two losses, Buffalo had a -4 turnover differential. They lost two fumbles to New England, the same number of fumbles they lost all of last season.
Based on play by play and market data from the current season, Buffalo ranks 5th in the NFL. The Bills should be fine.
Football humor – Joe Flacco led Cincinnati to a game winning field over division rival Pittsburgh on Thursday night. This means we get to unearth the greatest NFL song ever written: the Joe Flacco parody to the tune of Lola.
I dare you to listen and not get this stuck in your head.
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
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