Last season, current Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss threw two interceptions in his opening game, and his team Ferris State lost 19-3 to Pittsburg State in Division II. Chambliss got benched, but the starter broke his leg in the next game.
Chambliss returned as the starter and led his Ferris State team from western Michigan to a Division II national championship. Not highly recruited out of high school due to his late physical development, he parlayed this success into an offer from Ole Miss. None of this happens if the other QB never broke his leg.
When starting QB Austin Simmons got hurt against Kentucky, Chambliss took over and shined. In my yards per pass attempt (YPPA), Chambliss is predicted to throw for 10.2 YPPA against an average FBS defense. Despite the expected regression due to a small sample size of 135 attempts, these are excellent results (6.4 college football average).
In addition, Georgia’s pass defense has struggled this season. A few weeks ago before the Alabama game, I looked at their numbers and thought they can’t possibly have a pass defense that bad. Three more games have gone by, and Georgia’s pass defense ranks 82nd in my adjusted YPPA.
To put this in perspective, Tennessee QB Joey Aguilar threw for 9.8 YPPA against Georgia. He only had a better YPPA against UAB this season.
The Ole Miss defense isn’t as good as last season after losing five starters to the NFL draft. They rank 42nd in my adjusted yards per play compared to 7th last season. A competent Georgia offense should be able to score at home.
My numbers like Georgia by 7.9 points, consistent with a market that has Georgia -7.5. While Chambliss has excelled in leading Mississippi to a 6-0 record, their overall performance hasn’t been great. For example, Ole Miss beat Washington State at home last week by 3 as a 33 point favorite. Georgia should be favored at home.
However, the model also predicts 58.7 points in this game. With the emergence of the Ole Miss offense under Chambliss, there is value in the over. Earlier this week when I sent this analysis to members, the market had a total of 54.5 points. It has moved to 56.5, but I’d still lean towards the over.
Here is a sample of prediction available to members of The Power Rank.
NFL: Detroit will beat Tampa Bay by 4.1 points at home. Excellent safety Brian Branch will not play for Detroit due to a suspension, an absence that doesn’t appear on the injury report. Despite his absence, the market has moved from Detroit -4.5 to -5.5.
CFB: Michigan will beat Washington by 3.7 points at home. Michigan’s defense ranks 37th in my adjusted success rate after a poor showing against USC. The market has moved from Michigan -5.5 to -4.5 for this noon Eastern kick off.
NFL: San Francisco will beat Atlanta by 3.3 points at home on Sunday night. In my adjusted passing success rate, Mac Jones has the 5th best rating among active NFL starters. If Brock Purdy returns, my prediction would change to use his numbers.
Football betting with a PhD edge
This article was sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter at 2pm Eastern on Friday, October 17, 2025. This newsletter is a free service that strives to be:
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