Looking for sharp sports betting action this weekend? Your curated list of tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.
Georgia at Auburn, College Football Week 7 – Bob Stoll, the gold standard in college football handicapping, doesn’t like the Auburn offense. QB Jackson Arnold transferred in from Oklahoma, as he was given a pass for his poor performance last season because of injuries to receivers.
However, Arnold has had good receivers at Auburn, and the pass offense has still struggled at 4.8 yards per pass play. Auburn now faces a Georgia defense suspect against the pass but elite against the run.
Bob’s model projects 17 points for Auburn, and he leans Auburn under 21.5 points, -115 available at DraftKings. The free analysis at Dr. Bob Sports in college football and NFL is a treasure trove of betting information.
NFL interception prop – Caleb Williams led Chicago to two wins before a bye last week. My numbers are skeptical overall on Williams, as his adjusted passing success rate is bottom five among active NFL starters.
However, Williams does one thing really well: not throw the football in dangerous situations. I track this bad ball rate and use it to project that Williams will have a 1.6% interception rate the remainder of this season, much better than the 2.2% NFL average.
My model gives a 59.2% chance for Williams to not throw a pick against Washington on Monday night. The market has gotten better at pricing this prop, but Caleb Williams under 0.5 interceptions, -120 is available at BetMGM as of Saturday morning.
Members of The Power Rank will have access to more interception props at noon Eastern on Saturday.
The Jets and turnovers – The New York Jets have yet to win this season with an 0-5 record. However, they also have an unsustainable -8 turnover margin. Their path to 8 turnovers and 0 takeaways is mind-boggling.
- The offense has lost 7 of 9 fumbles.
- The defense has recovered 0 of 6 fumbles.
- The defense has 17 passes defended but 0 interceptions.
There is a huge random element in these turnover percentages, and the Jets might win a game when this randomness works for them. My member numbers have Denver by 6.5 points in London over the Jets on Sunday morning.
Best team in college football – In his excellent newsletter The Tip Sheet, Sammy Panayotovich asked Wynn bookmaker Motoi Pearson about the best team in college football: “It’s either Alabama or Old Dominion.”
Old Dominion is 4-1 with a cover against an excellent Indiana team and 24.3 average margin of victory over three FBS teams. For a pass offense that ranks 20th in my adjusted success rate, top receiver Na’eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding came out of nowhere after 17 receiving yards on 3 targets as a freshman last season. Their next two receivers both played in junior college last season.
The market believes in this team, as Old Dominion has moved from -12 to -14.5 at Marshall this week.
Football humor – In the ultimate Moneyball move, Cleveland got draft capital for a washed up, 40 year old quarterback. They sent Joe Flacco and a 6th round pick to Cincinnati for a 5th round pick. You can’t make this up.
Tom Grossi had a great video on it. “Does no one have our number?! Kirk Cousins is available,” screamed the Atlanta Falcons.
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
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