The Minnesota Vikings play the Cleveland Browns in London on Sunday morning at 9:30am Eastern time. Two factors make this spread of particular interest.
First, the Browns have benched Joe Flacco in favor of rookie Dillon Gabriel. The market has not adjusted from Minnesota -3.5. Sharp bettors believe Flacco was so bad that Gabriel can’t be worse. The same idea got floated last week when the market only moved a half point when Russell Wilson got benched for Jaxson Dart.
I disagree.
Flacco has been terrible, as he has a predicted passing success rate of 29.4% against an average NFL defense (42.9% average this season). This poor performance is included in my member prediction that favors Minnesota by 3.4 points against the Browns with Flacco. However, it is small aspect of my model because of a small sample size of four games.
Ben Fawkes surveyed book makers to get an ensemble estimate of the drop between starting and back up QBs. This analysis had a 1.5 point drop from Flacco to Kenny Pickett. I think it should be more to the rookie Dillon Gabriel, and I have made a 2 point adjustment.
Second, Minnesota has a travel advantage, as they played in Dublin last week. The Vikings have been in the same time zone all week, while Cleveland flew to London on Wednesday night.
According to University of Michigan sleep expert Cathy Goldstein MD, jet lag occurs because of the mismatch between the body’s circadian rhythms and the external time. It takes the body about one day per time zone to align.
Cleveland will have three nights in London before playing Minnesota on Sunday, not enough time to recover from a time change of five time zones. According to Goldstein, this circadian disruption and associated sleep loss from the flight could reduce performance.
This implies that a prediction that includes travel would favor Minnesota by more than 5.4 points over the disadvantaged Browns.
I know it seems a little crazy to ask Carson Wentz to cover more than a field goal against a solid Cleveland defense. But there is value in Minnesota -3.5, and I suspect this will be available on Sunday morning.
Here is a sample of predictions usually saved for paying members of The Power Rank.
NFL. Dallas will beat the New York Jets by 1.9 points on the road. The Jets are 0-4. However, they have a -7 turnover margin with zero takeaways on the season, and they have kept three of four games within a single score.
CFB. Texas will beat Florida by 4.2 points on the road. Texas QB Arch Manning has struggled so far this season. While Florida has a 1-3 record, their defense ranks 17th in my adjusted passing success rate, so Manning will be tested.
CFB. Georgia will Kentucky by 19.3 points at home. Kirby Smart gets the benefit of the doubt on defense as a two time national championship winning coach. However, this Georgia team ranks 63rd in my adjusted yards per pass attempt. If this doesn’t improve, this will not be a typical Georgia defense.
Football betting with a PhD edge
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