Looking for sharp football betting action this weekend? Your curated list of tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.
College football – Looking for sharp inside information? Perhaps from someone who sees which side the sharps are betting all week? Chris Andrews welcomes sharp action as the director of the South Point sports book and has posted his plays from a college football contest the past two weeks.
Among seven games this week, Chris has Washington +8 at home against Ohio State. I still have questions about Ohio State QB Julian Sayin, who didn’t have to do much in their opening week win over Texas. Washington QB Demond Williams Jr has shown a high ceiling in five starts since the end of last season.
As of Saturday morning, Washington +8.5 is widely available. Follow Chris Andrews for all of his college football, NFL and betting insights.
NFL interception prop – Daniel Jones has killed it in three games as the starter in Indianapolis. A big part of his success has been zero interceptions in 88 pass attempts.
However, Jones has had 12 passes in which the defense gets a hand on the football or jars it loose with a hit. When a QB puts the football in these dangerous situations, we expect 20% of these types of passes to end up as interceptions. Jones has gotten lucky that none of them have.
My model gives a 51.2% chance that Jones throws an interception at the Los Angeles Rams. There is value in Daniel Jones over 0.5 interceptions, +122 available at FanDuel.
Members of The Power Rank will have access to more interception props at noon Eastern today.
Jaxson Dart adjustment – It’s almost impossible to make a data driven adjustment to a rookie QB. When the Giants announced that Dart would start instead of Russell Wilson, a few sharp books moved a half point. The idea is that Wilson was so bad that sharps didn’t move the market that much.
I disagree with such a small move for this QB change. Two poor games from Wilson is too small of a sample size to think he will perform at the same level as a rookie in his first game.
I aggregated a few opinions from people I trust for a two point drop from Wilson to Dart. In my member predictions, this adjustment means the Chargers will beat the Giants by 7.0 points on the road.
How to develop a QB – “I had to tell him a million times the punter is your friend.” QB coach Bruce Arians actually said this about coaching Peyton Manning as a rookie.
Manning eventually thrived despite 28 interceptions his rookie season, and he acknowledges that he got put in the right situation. Had he come out a year earlier, the Jets had the top pick, and Bill Parcells would have never been as patient with a rookie.
Zak Keefer of The Athletic wrote an excellent profile of QB development, or the lack thereof, in the NFL. The full article is worth your time, and I get value out of my subscription to The Athletic for their football and soccer coverage.
Football humor – After the Patriots lost four fumbles: “Look, this would not be happening if we had Bill. He was always big on ball security.”
“His balls are being secured by someone else now.” Annie Agar brings it every week with her NFL meeting.
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
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I really enjoyed the mix of betting insights and humor in this article. The analysis on Daniel Jones was particularly interesting, and its great to see the behind-the-scenes look at how sharp books react to QB changes. The Athletic subscription shoutout is also a smart plug!