Looking for sharp sports betting action this weekend? Your curated list of tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.
Houston at Jacksonville, NFL Week 3 –Tanner Busick of Dr. Bob Sports notes that Houston might be 0-2 but have played a difficult schedule with Tampa Bay and the Los Angeles Rams. In contrast, Jacksonville (1-1) has played two weaker teams in Carolina and Cincinnati.
This strength of competition matters in particular for Jacksonville’s offensive line, a unit that has faced two bottom 10 defensive lines by Tanner’s metrics. In contrast, Houston has a strong defensive line that ranks 4th in pressure rate in 2025.
In the preseason, the market had Houston -2, the same prediction as my preseason wisdom of crowds model. On the Dr. Bob Sports weekly NFL show, Tanner gave out Houston +1.5, and -108 is available at FanDuel as of Saturday morning.
NFL interception prop – Jared Goff threw a pick against Green Bay in Detroit’s opening week loss. However, this play was one of only two in which the defense has gotten a hand on a Goff pass this season.
This matters in predicting the future. I use bad balls, or the sum of interceptions and passes defended (plays in which the defense gets a hand of the football), to predict inceptions. Since the start of 2022, Goff now has the lowest bad ball rate of any NFL QB with at least 700 attempts.
My model gives a 57.5% chance that Goff does not throw an interception on Monday night against Baltimore, which implies value in Jared Goff under 0.5 interceptions. The price of +104 at DraftKings implies a 49.0% break even probability.
Members of The Power Rank have access to two more NFL interception props.
Top down NFL prop betting tool – SharpStack uses historical data to find the sharpest sports books in a particular market. Let’s look at NFL player props with value based on the weighted average of these sharp books.
- Josh Jacobs under 78.5 rushing yards, -110 at ESPNBet. The Cleveland defense held Derrick Henry to 23 rush yards last week.
- Keenan Allen under 58.5 receiving yards, -115 at BetMGM. Allen faces a strong Denver secondary.
I have confidence in the tool because it mostly recommends unders at books like ESPNBet and BetMGM. Let’s also look at a bet at FanDuel, although there is a much smaller edge.
- Darius Slayton under 24.5 receiving yards, -114 at FanDuel. Slayton has three targets in two games for the New York Giants.
Use the code thepowerrank to get 25% off SharpStack.
Market movement – In the free newseltter The Tip Sheet, Sammy Panayotovich notes interesting market movement in college football and the NFL. Here are a few interesting games this week.
- Wisconsin -7.5 to -10. Wisconsin QB Billy Edwards Jr. is questionable for this game after missing the last two, so this market move seems to go against Maryland.
- Purdue +27.5 to +25.5. Purdue has shown signs of life with two wins and not getting blown out by USC last week. They travel to Notre Dame.
Sammy also posted analysis on market movement based on the uncertainty surrounding South Carolina QB LaNorris Sellars.
Football humor – To rookie Ashton Jeanty: “I’m sorry you don’t get to play against Butternut State on a Wednesday night at 2am anymore.” Brandon Carney kills it every week with Fantasy Football Busts of the Week. The slaps make it particularly worth it.
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
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