The Power Rank is based on data and analytics. Over the years, I’ve gotten better at using metrics that capture the context of each play. We’ll get into how success rate shows an interesting picture in two games for Russell Wilson.
However, data and analytics can’t capture all the context in football. Let’s use the Kansas City Chiefs as an example.
Last week against Philadelphia, Kansas City had a long drive in the second half. Down 13-10, the Chiefs were poised to score as QB Patrick Mahomes threw a pass to Travis Kelce at the goal line. It was a pass that the Hall of Fame tight end catches nine out of ten times.
Except this one. The pass bounces off his hand and into the hands of Philadelphia safety Andrew Mukuba for an interception. Mukuba caught the football in stride and ran 41 yards the other direction.
Philadelphia won the game 20-17 despite having few total yards (294 to 218). Kansas City should have won the game. Instead, my member model will reflect the loss for Kansas City, not knowing that they were unlucky to have Kelce gift Philadelphia the interception.
How about Kansas City’s opponent this week, the New York Giants? They looked awful Week 1 against Washington. Then in the most unexpected way, the offense blew up for 37 points against Dallas in a second loss.
Let’s use success rate to quantify the difference in the two performances. For the offense, a play is a success based on whether it gets the following fraction of yards towards the next first down.
- 50% on 1st down.
- 70% on 2nd down.
- 100% on 3rd, 4th down.
The numbers for Russell Wilson in two games are a stark contrast:
- Week 1 at Washington: 25.6% passing success rate, 4.03 yards per pass attempt.
- Week 2 at Dallas: 50.0% passing success rate, 9.59 yards per pass attempt.
The NFL averages through two weeks are 42.8% for passing success rate and 5.92 for yards per pass attempt.
My member model has Kansas City by 7.3 points. Because of the Kelce play, it should probably be more. There is value in Kansas City -5.5, -120 available at FanDuel.
Here are a few of the other predictions available to members of The Power Rank.
CFB: Michigan will beat Nebraska by 1.6 points on the road. Michigan freshman QB Bryce Underwood ran for 114 yards on 9 scrambles last week after almost no rushes the first two weeks.
NFL: Washington will beat Las Vegas by 3.2 points at home. Washington QB Jayden Daniels will not play in this game, and I used book maker consensus to make a 3.8 point adjustment to Marcus Mariota.
CFB: Miami will beat Florida by 6.5 at home. After losing their last two games, it seems like Florida should be a double digit underdog in this game. However, the market with Miami -7.5 is close to my number.
Football betting with a PhD edge
This article was sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter on Friday, September 19, 2025. This newsletter is a free service that strives to be:
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The predictions are based on my PhD research from Stanford, and the content covers college football and the NFL.
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