Looking for sharp betting action this weekend? Your curated list of tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.
South Florida at Miami, College Football Week 3 – South Florida has upset two ranked opponents in Boise State and Florida. However, the party likely ends on the road at another ranked opponent.
On the Cover 3 podcast, Bud Elliott noted that South Florida has been reliant on explosive plays, and it might be difficult to find these plays against a Miami defense that plays their safeties deep. Bud also likes how the Miami defensive line has played.
To avoid late game situations which prevent covering a large number like 17.5, Bud likes Miami -9.5 in the first half, -115 available at BetMGM (game at 4:30pm Eastern). A sharp book like Circa has Miami -10.5, so this seems like an ideal opportunity to take advantage of one of the softer sports books.
NFL player prop – Ryan Noonan notes that Puka Nucua’s role with the Los Angeles Rams has changed this season. Without Cooper Kupp, the third year WR has moved in the slot receiver position (76% of snaps in week 1 versus 32% last season).
In addition, the Rams are dealing with injuries on the offensive line, which most likely means more short passes by QB Matt Stafford. This implies a lot of targets for Nacua against Tennessee.
Ryan likes Puka Nacua over 6.5 receptions, -122 available at FanDuel, as Nacua has gone over this in eight of his last nine games. Follow Ryan Noonan for all of NFL insights.
The Unabated Line – Unabated takes a data driven approach to find the sharpest books in a given market, and then use the weighted average of these books in the Unabated Line. It’s a top down approach to finding value.
As of 10am Eastern on Saturday morning, here are a few NFL bets with value on FanDuel:
- Chicago at Detroit under 47.5, -118. Unabated line 46.5.
- Indianapolis +2.5 vs Denver, -120. Unabated line pick.
I don’t agree with the latter, but it seems like sharp bettors like Indianapolis as Circa has this game at a pick. Check out all the amazing software betting tools at Unabated.
Stopping the run – Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones said he traded away Micah Parson because they needed to stop the run. I’m not kidding.
With Parson, Green Bay has held Detroit and Washington to 2.45 yards per carry. The NFL average was 4.61 yards per carry in 2024.
Their rushing success rate allowed has been solid as well: 33.3% for Detroit and 36.8% for Washington compared to the 43.5% NFL average in 2024.
Sports humor – Frank Caliendo is pure gold in making the Mount Rushmore of sandwiches. The entire 4:36 is worth your time, but you can skip to his impressions of Chris Berman (0:13), Adam Schefter (0:52), Stephen A Smith (1:49, probably the best), Charles Barkley (3:30) and Mel Kiper (4:02).
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
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