The Buffalo Bills with QB Josh Allen are a clear Super Bowl contender even in the rugged AFC. The Bills have averaged 12 wins the past four seasons since the NFL went to a 17 game schedule.
Then why fade Buffalo this season? I see a declining roster that won’t compensate for the good fortune they had last season.
Let me explain.
First, the luck. Buffalo led the NFL with a +24 turnover margin. The defense was second in the NFL with 32 takeaways, a rank they almost certainly will not repeat in 2025. This made a declining defense seem better (more on that unit later).
On offense, Buffalo only gave away the ball 8 times, best in the NFL. There is no way they only lose two fumbles again.
In addition, Josh Allen got lucky with interceptions last season, as he had a 1.1% interception rate in 2024 compared to the 2.2% NFL average. This is unsustainable even for Tom Brady.
My research uses both interceptions and passes defended, or plays in which the defense gets a hand on the football, to make better interception predictions. My model predicts a 2.1% interception rate for Allen, which implies five more regular season picks than last year.
Second, the roster is not as strong on both sides of the ball.
The offense lost receivers like Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis before last season, and Allen subsequently had his lowest passing metrics over the past four seasons. At The Power Rank, I take Allen’s passing success rate and adjust for opposing defenses with my algorithm. In 2024, his predicted 45.2% success rate against an average NFL defense was solid but not elite (43.3% league average).
Khalil Shakir stepped up as the number one receiver with 115 targets and an excellent 2.20 yards per route run (1.5 average for NFL wide receivers). The Bills added Josh Palmer, who provides limited upside and will hope Keon Coleman makes a leap in his second season.
The pass defense was all over the map last season by metrics I trust:
- 13th in adjusted passing success rate
- 31st in PFF coverage grade
- 13th in adjusted yards per pass attempt
Edge Greg Rosseau and CB Christian Benford are two excellent young players. However, there are many question marks behind them. The safety play of Damar Hamlin and Taylor Rapp was awful last season, a big reason for the poor PFF coverage grade as a team.
Buffalo had high hopes for rookie Maxwell Hairston to take over at CB. However, he is on injured reserve after a training camp injury. Often injured veteran Tre’Davious White would start, but he is questionable to play against Buffalo with lower leg injury.
There is value in Buffalo under 11.5 wins. The price on FanDuel was +135 when I sent this to members of The Power Rank, but +130 now still has a lot of value.
Football betting with a PhD edge
This article was sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter at noon Eastern on Monday, September 1, 2025. This newsletter is a free service that strives to be:
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