There is only one thing I can reasonably sure about in this game: Jeremiah Smith and Caleb Downs are elite.
As a true freshman freak for Ohio State, Smith gained 3.15 yards per route run, in excess of the 3.0 for elite receivers. He will terrorize college football defenses until the 2027 NFL draft.
The safety Downs helped Ohio State win a national title last season and might be the best defensive player in college football. And yeah, it’s probable that both Texas and Ohio State make the 12 team playoff.
Beyond that, unpredictability rules in this colossal college football match up.
Texas QB Arch Manning takes over as starter. He only had a limited number of pass attempts last season as the back up to Quinn Ewers, and these attempts mostly came against Louisiana Monroe and Mississippi State.
Ohio State QB Julian Sayin was a top recruit but found himself in a training camp battle with Lincoln Kienholz for the starting job. Maybe both players could start for a top 5 team, or maybe Sayin isn’t quite ready for such a big game.
The uncertainty reaches to lesser analyzed parts of the roster.
As an example, Texas had two defensive tackles drafted high in the 2024 NFL draft. While this usually leads to a let down, two players within the program took over and then got drafted high in the 2025 NFL draft.
Now, instead of high recruits from within the program, Texas brought in two transfers to start at defensive tackle: Cole Brevard from Purdue and Maraad Watson from Syracuse. From my research, neither seems like an NFL prospect.
As another example, Ohio State’s defense lost four of its top five sack producers, all of whom got drafted. Edge Kenyatta Jackson Jr. is next in line and projected as an NFL prospect. However, he only played 316 snaps at Ohio State last season.
North Carolina transfer Beau Atkinson might be the answer for more sacks. However, he only played 381 snaps at North Carolina last season. That seems odd for a potential NFL prospect.
Questions abound for both teams. My preseason college football model likes Ohio State by 4.3 points, but the market has moved towards Texas. Because of Smith and Downs, I’d lean towards Ohio State at -2.5 or better if you need action on this game.
However, the smarter play is to stay away in a game with this much uncertainty.
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