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New England Patriots – On The Football Analytics Show podcast, noted NFL expert Clevta pointed out the inflated market for the Patriots because of new coach Mike Vrabel and a small sample size on QB Drake Maye.
TA is not convinced that Maye will take a second year leap in the NFL. In addition, free agent signing WR Stefon Diggs is coming off a knee injury, and a number of signings on defense might not help a unit that was awful in 2024.
TA thinks the best way to fade the Patriots in New England -200 not to make the playoffs (available at FanDuel). He also discussed his surprise team and the biggest impact player in 2025 on a must listen episode of The Football Analytics Show.
NFL interception future – Kyler Murray has been excellent at not throwing interceptions, as he has had a 1.9% interception rate over the past three seasons (2.3% NFL average). However, interception rate is not a good predictor of future interceptions.
At The Power Rank, I’ve researched how bad balls, or the sum of interceptions and passes defended (plays in which the defense gets a hand on the ball), is a better way to predict future interceptions. Bad ball rate captures how often a quarterback puts the football in a dangerous situation.
Murray has a bad ball rate of 13.1% over the past three seasons, much worse than the 12.1% NFL average. I estimate he should be priced around 15-1 to lead the NFL in interceptions. While an injury could derail this long shot, there is value in Kyler Murray 30-1 to lead the NFL in interceptions (price available at FanDuel).
Members of The Power Rank have access to three other players to lead the NFL in interceptions.
The 2025 Preview Series – This daily podcast series on The Football Analytics Show will get you ready for the 2025 football season. Topics include:
- 3 overrated college football teams (predictions with a track record)
- Why Justin Herbert isn’t a top 10 NFL quarterback.
- Can oil money buy a college football roster?
The 2025 Preview Series launches on Monday, August 18 and will have 10 episodes over two weeks.
After the conclusion of this series, the podcast will continue every week with this solo format. These weekly episodes that highlight football analytics with betting relevance will start the week of September 1. I will still do interviews, but not every week like in previous years.
Fantasy NFL wide receiver to target – Nick Gurol, a runner up in the 2024 NFL Big Data Bowl, used some advanced statistical methods to find value in NFL wide receivers for fantasy. He found that a statistics like yards after catch per route run is important in predicting performance for next season.
Based on this analysis, Nico Collins of Houston is an early round WR with value. I particularly like this result, as Collins has showed up in some of my analysis that will appear in The 2025 Preview Series on the podcast. There is some risk with this pick, as Collins has never had an injury free season in his four year NFL career.
Check Nick’s thread for other WRs to target in your fantasy draft.
Football humor – Not only funny stuff from Brandon Carney but also informative, as the Ravens use Madden Ratings in their player models.
Hmm, Nico Collins shows up again…
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
These nuggets were sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:
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Other emails offer analysis of college football and NFL games that founder Ed Feng has bet and a sample of predictions usually saved for paying members of The Power Rank.
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