Looking for sharp sports betting action this football season? Your curated list of tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.
Programming note: while the usual 5-Nugget promise is action on any given weekend, I stray from this the month before football season. With my attention solely college football and the NFL, I will provide futures in this newsletter.
College football future – On the most recent episode of the podcast, long time professional bettor Michael Riordan talked about the massive change for Southern Miss football as Charles Huff takes over the program.
While Southern Miss went 1-11 last season, that doesn’t matter in the portal era. Huff will bring 25 players with him from Marshall as he switches teams in Conference USA. This includes QB Braylon Braxton, the preseason conference player of the year.
Michael thinks Southern Miss makes a bowl game, and he likes Southern Miss over 4.5 wins, -196 available at FanDuel. He also mentioned over 5.5 wins at a price like -110 as a good bet.
Surprise NFL playoff team – The Atlanta Falcons are not favored to make the playoffs (+152 at FanDuel). However, noted NFL analyst ClevTA sees potential for them in 2025.
Second year QB Michael Penix Jr. takes over for interception prone veteran Kirk Cousins. He will have excellent weapons like WR Drake London. Perhaps equally as important, the Falcons improved their pass rush by bringing in veteran Leonard Floyd and drafting SEC standouts Jalon Walker (Georgia) and James Pearce (Tennessee).
ClevTA released his 2025 NFL preview yesterday, and he has a sparkling record of picking surprise teams like Minnesota in 2024. Over the past few seasons, this has become my go to resource for NFL prep with its concise one page written summaries on each team.
Green Bay Packers – QB Jordan Love struggled with interceptions last season, as he capped off his season with 3 interceptions in a road playoff loss at Philadelphia. For the season, Love had a 3.0% interception rate, worse than the NFL average of 2.2% in 2024.
However, the underlying metrics suggest Love should improve in 2025. My research shows the utility in looking at passes defended, or plays in which the defense gets a hand on the football or jars it loose with a hit. Bad balls, or the sum of interceptions and passes defended, is a better way to predict future interceptions than only interceptions.
For his career, Jordan Love has had a better than NFL average bad ball rate. My model predicts a 2.1% interception rate in 2025, a positive sign for the Packers. Members of The Power Rank will have full access to my NFL interception predictions next week.
Texas Tech football – After my recommendations last week, you’ve had the chance to binge Landman with Billy Bob Thornton, right? It actually has relevance to college football this season.
On the podcast, pro bettor Michael Riordan discussed the high variance prospects of Texas Tech this season, as west Texas oil money has flowed into the program this year before a supposed spending cap kicks in next season. Shehan Jeyarajah of CBS Sports went to Lubbock to interview the key donors and even reveals the barbeque joint with free beer in a long, excellent profile of Texas Tech football.
Sports humor – Shane Gillis crushed it at the ESPYS, especially with this introduction of a WNBA star (:18).
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
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