Looking for sharp sports betting action this weekend? Your curated list of tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.
NBA Finals Game 7 – For an NBA series, the total should drop as the series goes along. Professional bettor Carl Sack uses the KillerSports.com database to quantify this.
Over the past 23 years, 72 series have gone to Game 7, and the average drop in total from Game 6 is 3.4 points. In addition, the under has won by an average of 4.4 points (winning in 44 of 72 games for 61.1%). This analysis suggests the total should drop 7.8 points between Game 6 and 7.
For Indiana at Oklahoma City on Sunday night, the market total of 215 is 7.5 points lower than Game 6. Despite this big drop, Carl likes under 215 points (good down to 214.5), a play he sent to clients on Friday. Game 7 tips at 8pm Eastern on Sunday.
Phoenix Mercury at Chicago Sky, WNBA – In this game, Phoenix will play its 3rd road game in 4 days. In addition, Phoenix has played a weak schedule but still only posted a +2.9 average point differential.
Chicago is not a strong team, with a 3-8 record and the second worst point differential in the WNBA. However, they catch Phoenix in the right situation, and there is value in Chicago +11 at home, a spread that is too large. Game tips at 1pm Eastern on Saturday.
Penn State Nittany Lions – This week, I generated my most powerful college football preseason predictor. It had a big surprise: Penn State at 2nd in the nation.
James Franklin always yields a top 10 program in the nation. This season, he brings back QB Drew Allar, and he hired excellent defensive coordinator Jim Knowles away from Ohio State.
Despite a semi-final college football playoff run last season, Penn State lacked talent at wide receiver. Franklin used the portal to bring in new players, and Devonte Ross from Troy seems particularly promising (2.77 yards per route run, 117 targets last season on the 40th ranked team in my adjusted passing success rate).
Still, 2nd seems high for Penn State. This ranking comes from my market model which takes market win totals and backs out a rating for each team. Members of The Power Rank have access to the full college football market rankings.
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US men’s national team – Upset that Christian Pulisic isn’t playing in the Gold Cup this summer? This is the last chance for the USMNT to make a statement before the World Cup on home soil next summer since host countries do not have to qualify.
Ryan O’Hanlon of ESPN asks you to put it in perspective. Lionel Messi retired from Argentina in 2016, partially over frustration with the federation. Kylian Mbappe didn’t play in multiple Nations League matches for France last fall.
For the 1994 World Cup, most of than United States team trained with the national team all year long. They didn’t have a club. Since then, the United States has become a “soccer country” with multiple players at the top clubs in the world. Sometimes, this leads to the drama of not having these star players in important matches.
Basketball humor – On the New Heights podcast, Shaquille O’Neal told the story of his first dunk. As a junior in high school, he missed a finger roll lay up in a game.
During a timeout, Shaq’s dad took him outside into the hall and smacked him upside the head (or whatever Shaq meant by “WAPP” on the podcast). “F*ck Magic Johnson. You’re Shaquille O’Neal, start dunking that sh*t. I’m tired of watching that sh*t.”
Shaq tells the coach to give him the ball, and he dunks it. His dad celebrates in the stands. “That’s what the f*ck I’m talking about.”
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