Looking for sharp sports betting action this weekend? Your curated list of tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.
Las Vegas at Golden State, WNBA – In their first season, the Golden State Valkyries are off to a 2-5 start. However, they should see better performance in the near future.
Three point shooting has a large random component. Golden State is last in the WNBA in making 27.9% from behind the arc, which suggests regression to the league average of 33.3%.
Golden State faces Las Vegas at home, and the Valkyries have led the league in attendance this season with over 18,000 fans per game which should give them an extra home court edge. There is value in Golden State +12.5 against Las Vegas (tips at 3pm Eastern on Saturday).
NBA Finals – There is usually a good reason when a 4 seed makes the NBA Finals and goes up 1-0 as a heavy underdog. Let’s look at the three point field goal percentage for the Indiana Pacers in the last two series.
- Eastern Conference Finals: Indiana 39.0% (73 of 187) compared to 33.2% for the New York Knicks.
- Round 2 of Playoffs: Indiana 42.5% (69 of 164) compared to 29.4% for the 1 seed Cleveland Cavaliers.
Tyrese Haliburton might have hit the big shot for Indiana to win Game 1 against the Oklahoma City Thunder. However, the Pacers hit 46.2% from three (18 of 39 compared to 36.7% for the Thunder).
Indiana could continue their hot shooting on their way to a title. However, regression to their regular season average of 36.8% is more likely, and the markets have Oklahoma City -11 in Game 2, up from -10 in Game 1.
Portugal vs Spain, UEFA Nations League Final – In 2018, UEFA created the Nations League to replace meaningless international friendlies with competitive matches. This means Spain and Portugal will feature all their top players in this final on Sunday.
My world soccer/football rankings take match results since the beginning of 2021 and adjust for opponent. Spain (2nd) and Portugal (8th) are two of the top teams in the world.
These rankings also power my predictions, which give Spain a 44% chance to win in regulation. The market are higher on Spain, as the -115 to win in regulation implies a 53.4% break even probability.
Tracking my college football overrated predictions – In every non-COVID season since 2015, I’ve published a 3 overrated college football teams article.
My methods have change after almost a decade of predictions against the preseason AP poll, but the results have not. Based on my grading, I’m getting two in three predictions correct (18-6 with 3 pushes).
- Best prediction: TCU overrated at 17th in the preseason AP poll in 2023 after their miraculous run to the national championship the previous season. TCU went 5-7.
- Worst prediction: Michigan overrated at 2nd in the preseason AP in 2023 before they won a national championship.
In August, I will have my 10th edition of 3 overrated college football teams.
Soccer humor – AC Milan fans had a funeral for rival Inter after their 5-0 loss to PSG in the Champions League final. This short 21 second video is pure gold and possibly makes AC Milan forget they finished 8th in Serie A this season.
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
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