Looking for sharp sports betting action this weekend? Your curated list of tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.
PGA Championship – The majority of the golf betting community backed Bryson DeChambeau in the outright winner market for the PGA Championship. DeChambeau has yet to excel though, as he sits one shot behind a group tied for 7th.
Golf expert Ryan Noonan of Betsperts Golf recommends not giving up on DeChambeau. His prodigious ability to hit the ball remains a massive advantage, and Ryan thinks his edge grows as the course firms up this weekend.
Ryan likes Bryson DeChambeau +140 to finish Top 5 at the PGA Championship (price at FanDuel includes ties). Follow Ryan Noonan for all of his golf and NFL insights.
NBA player prop – Game 7 of an NBA series often features less offense, and the total for Denver at Oklahoma City (213.5 points) is five points less than Game 6. Stars like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will get their opportunities, but role players might have a diminished role.
Cason Wallace of Oklahoma City has had a points prop of 4.5 or 5.5 points on FanDuel in all games this series. After 10 points in the previous game, the market is 5.5 points. Wallace’s minutes have a varied from 11 to 27 in the series, which means coach Mark Daigneault won’t hesitate to sit the guard if he doesn’t perform.
There is value in Cason Wallace under 5.5 points, -128 at FanDuel.
Denver at Oklahoma City, Game 7 – The total for Game 7 should be the lowest of the series, as the offenses tend to struggles as defenses get to know tendencies. In addition, the referees tend to call fewer fouls in these pivotal games.
Professional bettor Carl Sack of KillerSports.com can provide data on this trend. Since the start of the pace and space era in 2016, the average total points scored in Game 7 is 9.7 points less than in Game 1.
For the Thunder vs Nuggets series, the market total started at 229.5 points for Game 1 but has dropped to 213.5 points for Game 7. This drop of 16 points seems like too much compared to the historical average.
However, betting the under in Game 7 has a record 17-10 since 2016, and the total has gone under by an average of 7.2 points. Carl would only bet the under, but he will pass on the total in Denver at Oklahoma City. Check out all the software tools over at KillerSports.com.
NFL schedule analytics – With the release of the NFL schedule, internet experts will tell you what teams have the easiest/hardest schedule. However, Adam Chernoff, who writes the Football Bettors newsletter, digs out the truth through data and even the research papers.
A team’s bye week timing, or whether it comes early or late in the season, doesn’t seem to have an impact on playoff chances according to academic research. However, Adam found that rest disparity matters. Teams with three or more extra rest days have covered 54% of games since 2019.
This finding on rest advantage is consistent with my own research. I give a half point edge to an NFL team off a bye that plays a team who played the previous week.
NFL humor – I try to stay away from humor that is too long, but the 4:43 of the Los Angeles Chargers schedule release video is pure gold. Shots taken at the Giants for letting Saquon go, Anthony Richardson, the Chiefs for their Super Bowl performance and more.
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
These nuggets were sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:
- Valuable
- Concise
- Entertaining
Other emails offer analysis of college football and NFL games that founder Ed Feng has bet and a sample of predictions usually saved for paying members of The Power Rank.
To get this free service delivered straight into your inbox, enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”
Leave a Reply