Looking for sports betting action this weekend? Your curated list of tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.
NBA player prop – Golden State’s Draymond Green made 4 of 5 threes in the first half of Game 1 against Minnesota. Since then, he has made one of 11 three points shots.
Green is not a good shooter at 32.5% from three. Even without Steph Curry, I suspect Green stops shooting so much and gets back to what he does best in Game 3: play defense. There is value in Draymond Green under 1.5 threes, -154 at FanDuel.
Player props market line – Betstamp Pro is a new service that facilitates top down player prop betting. This service calculates a true line for each prop based on the sharpest sports books over multiple seasons.
For example, Betstamp Pro has a true line for rebounds and assists for Oklahoma City’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (SGA) against Denver on Sunday.
- Over 13.5 rebounds and assists, +106 or 48.5% chance to go over.
The Betstamp Pro odds screen then shows value on SGA over 12.5 rebounds and assists, -115 at BetMGM.
Betstamp Pro is an expensive service that limits the number of customers. Just like I did, you can get an excellent free demo from Liam Frake by filling out this form.
Oklahoma City Thunder – On the podcast, NBA expert Henry Abbott of TrueHoop describe a crazy feature of the organization: a four person department solely dedicated to predicting the long term future of the league. In four years, they want to predict things like:
- Which teams will suck so the Thunder can trade for their picks.
- Whether the NBA will still prefer athletic wings that can guard the three.
Henry likes the Thunder to win an NBA championship this season.
On a must listen episode of The Football Analytics Show, Henry also discussed his new book Ballistic: The New Science of Injury-Free Athletic Performance in which he discusses the latest big data science. I particularly liked how he showed me a simple exercise to know if someone has computer back, or bad posture (think Karl-Anthony Towns).
College football – Bill Connelly of ESPN isn’t buying Clemson as a top 5 team in 2025. The Godfather of college football analytics notes that Clemson had a ton of turnover luck last season.
Bill goes beyond simple turnover margin and calculates an expected turnover margin based on facts like 21% of passes defended become interceptions. Clemson had 10.1 more turnovers in their favor than expected, 3rd most in the nation.
Clemson fans are thrilled that the offense produced big plays against an excellent Texas defense in the playoff. However, Bill thinks this was an outlier game for a program that has relied more on efficiency. Bill expects to have Clemson around 10th through 12th in his preseason college football rankings.
Social media blew up with hilarious Pope humor, including this one with Snoop.
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