Looking for NFL draft betting action? Your curated list of tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.
Total Offensive Linemen Drafted in 1st round – Luke Swain, who goes by Vegas Refund on social media, notes a growing belief that more offensive linemen will be taken on Thursday night.
Five offensive linemen will almost certainly to get picked the first round, which leaves these odds for the next three linemen (price from FanDuel).
- Josh Simmons, -950.
- Josh Conerly Jr., -160.
- Donovan Jackson, +220.
This suggests value in over 6.5 offensive linemen taken in the 1st round, +145 available at BetMGM. Luke has compiled sharp mock drafts in his NFL draft sheet, which I will be using this week to bet NFL draft props (paid product with free sample).
Position of New Orleans Saints First Drafted Player – NFL expert Connor Allen of 4for4 Football likes the uncertainty surrounding New Orleans in this draft. Without Derek Carr for an extended time due to injury, it seemed like they might take QB Shedeur Sanders.
However, multiple reliable Saints beat reporters do not think they take Sanders at 9th in the draft. This leaves open the chance that they draft TE Tyler Warren instead if he falls past the Jets.
Connor sees value in New Orleans to draft a tight end with their first pick, +700 available at FanDuel. Follow Connor for all of his NFL insights.
Top NFL wide receiver in the draft – Tetairoa McMillan from Arizona is considered the top WR in 2025 NFL draft, and Matthew Golden of Texas has surged after fantastic testing at the combine. However, the numbers point to another player as the top WR.
Every year, JJ Zachariason of Late Round Fantasy Football projects top prospects based on his ZAP model. This year, he has Luther Burden of Missouri as the top WR in the 2025 draft class.
Burden’s sophomore year was the best season for any wide receiver in this draft class, the main driver behind his top ranking. Burden was not as spectacular this past season as a junior, which seems to have lowered his draft stock.
JJ discussed his prospect model on the latest episode of The Football Analytics Show, a must listen for anyone with an interest in football analytics. You can get his Late Round Prospect Guide on his website.
Detroit Pistons – A year ago, Detroit ended the season with a 14-68 record. In a massive turn around, Detroit had a 44-38 record this season, which means the 6 seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs. How did the Pistons turn things around?
First, Cade Cunningham finished the season averaging 26.1 points, 9.1 assists and 6.1 rebounds, and shot 35.6 percent from three. Only players like Nikola Jokic (twice), LeBron James and Luka Doncic have averaged those numbers in NBA history.
Second, Detroit brought in veterans like Tobias Harris and Tim Hardaway Jr. to play a supporting role. The defense (11th by points per possession for the season) has been better than the offense (16th of 30).
Despite their strong season, the markets give Detroit a 22.4% chance to advance past the Knicks in their first round playoff series.
Football humor – A hilarious reminder that the NFL rules American sports, especially in midwest cities like Cleveland (:18).
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
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