Looking for some sharp sports betting action this weekend? The holy crap it’s March edition of 5-Nugget Saturday, my curated list of tips, analytics and humor.
College basketball player prop – Alabama’s Mark Sears is an excellent scoring point guard at the college basketball level. However, he faces a tough game at Tennessee, one of the best defensive programs in the nation.
By my adjusted points per possession, Tennessee ranks 1st in the nation. Point guard Zakai Zeigler might only stand 5’9″, but he is the defending SEC defensive player of the year. Zeigler will make it tough on Sears, not a giant at 6’1″, all game long.
My simple model projects 16.5 points for Sears, and it should probably be lower given the defensive intensity of Zeigler. There is value in Mark Sears under 17.5 points, +100 at FanDuel (game tips at 4pm Eastern).
Members of The Power Rank will get access to more college basketball player props at noon Eastern today.
College basketball player ratings – Evan Miyakawa uses a Bayesian performance rating to evaluate college basketball players. This metric not only incorporates box score stats but also how a player impacts his team on offense and defense per possession.
One player that stands out is Houston’s Joseph Tugler. On a team known for defense, he has the best defensive player rating of any player in the country.
This type of analysis is useful in evaluating player props. JT Toppin has been a stud for Texas Tech this season, but he went under 15.5 points in a game against Houston this week. Tugler blocked one of Toppin’s shots to keep him to 14 points.
NFL combine analytics – Measurements such as 40 yard dash are taken on players invited to the NFL combine. Kevin Cole, the founder of Unexpected Points, has dug through 15 years of data to evaluate the effect of such measurements on draft position and NFL production.
For running backs and wide receivers, Kevin found that 40 yard results were important in predicting draft position but almost worthless for NFL production (subscription required). The football community overrates speed. For running backs, agility through the 3 cone drill has the biggest impact on NFL production.
Check out all of Kevin’s work at Unexpected Points as running backs and wide receivers take center stage at the NFL combine on Saturday, March 1.
Will my team make the tournament? Indiana came into the season with high expectations after a strong haul of transfer players. Then the Hoosiers lost eight of 10 Big Ten games at one point during conference play.
Indiana bounced back with a big win over Purdue last Sunday. Is it enough to make the tournament?
Bracket Matrix aggregates the bracket predictions of 108 experts. I rely on this wisdom of crowds approach to estimate seeding and whether a team will make the field of 68.
Right now, Bracket Matrix has Indiana as the last team in the field. (They are the last 11 seed before the conference champions start to populate seeds 12 and lower.)
NFL humor – How do you find an NFL quarterback?
Bill Belichick: “You might take a look at the ones that the Jets have released. Geno Smith and Sam Darnold, they’ve done pretty well.”
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
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