Looking for sharp sports betting action this weekend? Your curated list of tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.
College basketball player prop – Kasparas Jakucionis of Illinois has come over from Europe to lead his team in scoring. The 6’6″ inch point guard is the 5th pick overall in the latest ESPN NBA mock draft.
However, Jakucionis should struggle against an excellent Duke defense (5th in adjusted points per possession, 1st in adjusted two point field goal percentage). He only shoots 34% from three and will find shots in the lane difficult with the presence of Duke big Khaman Maluach.
My simple model expects 14.3 points for Jakucionis, which suggests value in Kasparas Jakucionis under 15.5 points, -115 at FanDuel.
Brooklyn Nets at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA – Professional bettor Carl Sack has been developing his NBA model for almost a decade. He doesn’t like the prospects for Brooklyn without their two offensive facilitators, DeAngelo Russell and Ben Simmons.
Simmons is no longer with the team, and Russell has been ruled out for the game against Philadelphia with an ankle injury. Ever since the trade that brought Russell to Brooklyn, the Nets average 105 points per game based on per 48 minute basis with Russell on and Simmons off. When both are off the court, this drops to 92 points per game.
Philadelphia is in desperate need of a win and will have Joel Embiid, Paul George and Tyrese Maxey. Carl likes Brooklyn Nets team total under 100.5, -110 available at FanDuel.
Check out Carl’s work under the name NBA Guru at KillerCappers.com as well as his data driven tools at KillerSports.com.
College basketball analytics – Wisconsin didn’t come into the season with high expectations, as they only had five points in the preseason AP poll. However, transfer guard John Tonje has come in and led the Badgers to a 21-5 record.
However, let’s not put Wisconsin in the Final Four just yet. My market rankings take closing spreads and adjust for opponent with my algorithm. The Badgers rank 26th in the nation by the markets, worse than their 9th by points.
This is the last week that I’m making my member adjusted metrics available to the public for free. Check out all of my best college basketball numbers.
College football returning production – Collin Wilson of the Action Network is one of the experts at evaluating college football off season moves. He posted a preliminary look at returning production, which must include transfer activity in 2025.
In his visual, Oklahoma stands out as a team that looks strong on offense and defense heading into the 2025 season. They got Washington State QB John Mateer on offense. On defense, Oklahoma also looks solid after ranking 4th in the nation in my adjusted success rate.
Follow Collin Wilson for all of his college football insights.
Football humor – Nick Saban is intense about football. A great minute clip from the Pivot Podcast.
Get your March Madness cheat sheet
These nuggets were sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter, a free service that strives to be:
- Valuable
- Concise
- Entertaining
You’ll also get my March Madness cheat sheet that makes it drop dead easy to fill out your bracket.
To get this free service delivered straight into your inbox, enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”
Leave a Reply