Looking for sharp Super Bowl prop betting action? Your curated list of tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.
Jalen Hurts anytime TD – Philadelphia is well known for the brotherly shove, a quarterback sneak that often gets a touchdown for their massive quarterback. A price of Jalen Hurts -115 for an anytime touchdown, or a 53.5% break even probability, seems too low.
Matt Freedman of Betting Life runs numbers on touchdowns, and his model makes the price -165. There is value in Jalen Hurts anytime TD scorer, -115 at FanDuel.
Total Players With A Pass Attempt – Chinamaniac is a professional bettor focused on player props. While the Super Bowl seems like a game for trick plays, he notes that only quarterbacks attempted passes for Kansas City and Philadelphia this season.
Chinamaniac likes under 2.5 players to attempt a pass, -200 available at Caesars (look under Passing Props). His research into the past quarter century of Super Bowls shows value in this bet.
Follow Chinamaniac for all of his betting insights. He has also recently started his Gambling Chronicles podcast.
Xavier Worthy 30+ yard reception – It’s fun to bet on something big to happen, especially when the numbers suggest value. On the Establish the Run podcast, Mike Leone noted that their models find value in the Kansas City receivers to break a 20+ or 30+ yard reception.
Of the three that he mentioned, I like Xavier Worthy the most, as the rookie has earned a larger target share later in the season. His speed also helps against a very good Philadelphia defense.
Mike mentioned Xavier Worthy to have a 30+ yard reception at +290, and you can actually get +300 on FanDuel as of Saturday morning.
The Too-Big Unabated Guide to the Super Bowl – Need even more Super Bowl props than you’re getting in 5-Nuggets? Captain Jack Andrews is hosting his Super Stream on Saturday night.
I’ll be one of the guests. Catch the Unabated Super Bowl livestream on YouTube at 7pm Eastern.
Patrick Mahomes – In a previous Super Bowl newsletter, I argued that there is some signal in a quarterback’s record in one score games. In games since the 199 season, Patrick Mahomes has the best winning percentage in these games, and one reason why is his scrambling ability.
Mahomes has an uncanny ability to feel the rush and scramble away from defenders. When he escapes the pocket, he makes plays despite his lack of speed.
This season, Mahomes has a 72% success rate when he runs. This rate is not only well above the NFL average of 43.5% but also better than elite athletes like Lamar Jackson (55.1%). In addition, Mahomes has had a rushing success rate higher than 60% in each of the past five seasons.
NBA humor – My phone blew up Sunday morning with the Luka Doncic news. This hilarious minute from Ben Houselog sums it up.
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
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