Looking for sharp sports betting action this weekend? Your curated list of tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.
College football player prop – On the Cover 3 podcast, Bud Elliott has talked about how he thinks Ohio State will run QB Will Howard in this game. He likes over 9.5 rushing yards against Notre Dame.
It’s difficult to be quantitative about these quarterback rushing props, as the opponent and game plan matter the most. Against Texas, Howard had 7 carries, which broke down into 4 designed runs, 1 scramble and two sacks (sacks count for college QB rush stats but not for NFL QB rush stats). While he ended with 4 rushing yards, he would have gone over 9.5 yards had he not tripped on one of his runs.
In addition, Notre Dame will not scheme against Will Howard’s running. They have too many other things to worry about. There is value in Will Howard over 9.5 rushing yards.
Washington at Detroit, NFL Divisional Playoff – One match up stands out in this game: Detroit’s pass offense vs Washington’s pass defense.
After their most recent game against Minnesota, Detroit QB Jared Goff moved to 1st in my adjusted passing success rate. This offense has excelled since the middle of the 2022 season with the same core of players.
Washington’s secondary is an issue, as they rank 29th by PFF coverage grade. Veteran CB Marshon Lattimore will play his 4th game for Washington against Detroit, and he probably can’t do worse than his performance against Tampa Bay last week.
My model likes Detroit by 9.2 points, but it should be more. There is value in Detroit -8.5, -112 at DraftKings this morning.
NFL longest rush prop – On the Move the Line podcast, Ryan Noonan likes the chances for Philadelphia RB Saquon Barkley to have another big game against the Los Angeles Rams. Earlier this season, Barkley rushed for 255 yards and two touchdowns against the Rams.
In that earlier game, Ryan notes that the Rams played a stacked box (8 or more defenders) on a third of plays against Philadelphia, higher than their usual rate of 19.3%. They tried to stop Barkley, and it didn’t work.
To bet on Barkley’s success, Ryan likes Saquon Barkley over 19.5 yards for his longest rush, -113 at FanDuel. This number seems low since Barkley had a longest rush of 21.5 last week against a better Green Bay rush defense.
In addition, I appeared on Move the Line with Ryan and Connor Allen to break down all four NFL playoff games.
Kansas City and the referees – Everyone knows that NFL referees favors the Kansas City Chiefs, right? How else can this team go 11-0 in one score games without help from the zebras late in games?
Adam Chernoff of Right Angle Sports disagrees. In the second half of NFL games this season, the Chiefs have had the most penalties called against them when the game was within one score. That’s first out of 32 teams.
Adam also described three other ways the referees don’t help Kansas City in this 2 minute video.
NFL humor – Which quarterback will be the ultimate playoff chocker? Brandon Carney is hilarious until the very end of this 31 second video (Marvel fans must watch until the end).
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
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