Looking for sharp sports betting action this weekend? Your curated list of tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.
NFL interception prop – Drew lock crushed it last week. The back up for the New York Giants threw for 309 yards, 4 touchdowns and no interceptions.
Lock had an outlier of a game, even if you consider that he played one of the worst defenses in the NFL (Indianapolis). In particular, the lack of interceptions is unsustainable.
My interception model looks at how often a QB puts the football in a dangerous situation, and it gives Lock a 64.5% chance to throw an interception against Philadelphia. He might be playing against some back ups, as Philadelphia has locked up the 2 seed in the NFC. However, my work also shows that the QB has the most control over interceptions.
There is value in Drew Lock over 0.5 interceptions, -130 against Philadelphia at DraftKings.
Motivation imbalance NFL games – The final week of the NFL regular season often features games with a team that needs a win to make the playoffs (Tampa Baty) against a team with nothing to play for (New Orleans).
Expert NFL analyst Edward Egros warns you to never bet the spread based only on motivation. By his count over the past 11 seasons, the favorite is 45-45 with 2 pushes against the spread in these games. The market is efficient in setting a spread in these “motivation imbalance” games.
Follow Edward Egros for all of his betting insights.
NFL player prop – Pro NFL bettor Rob Pizzola notes the respect that Cincinnati WRs Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins get, and rightfully so. However, Cincinnati actually tends to go deep to WR Andrei Iosivas more often.
Iosivas gets targeted an average of 11.7 yards past the line of scrimmage, a larger depth of target than for Chase and Higgins. He has had a catch of 17 or more yards in 9 of 16 games this season, and this includes 6 of the last 7 games.
Rob sent me Andrei Iosivas over 15.5 yards on his longest reception when Cincinnati plays Pittsburgh on Saturday night at 8pm Eastern. I think the argument also applies to over 16.5 yards, which is widely available Saturday morning (-125 at DraftKings).
Follow Rob for all of his NFL insights.
Ohio State vs Texas, College Football Playoff Semi-final – Chris Andrews, who runs the South Point sports book, opened Ohio State -6 against Texas in their game on Friday night. Despite his dislike of the team, Chris has had Ohio State at the top of his power rankings all season.
In addition, Chris decided to throw out the Michigan game, which he considers an aberration. On Friday morning, he moved to Ohio State -6.5 and got very little money on the favorite.
With the rest of the market at Ohio State -6, it’s not hard to figure out which side Chris likes in this game. Follow Chris Andrews for his book making insights on all sports.
NFL humor – JJ McCarthy switches positions. A killer 62 seconds from Brandon Carney.
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
These nuggets were sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:
- Valuable
- Concise
- Entertaining
Other emails offer analysis of college football and NFL games that founder Ed Feng has bet and a sample of predictions usually saved for paying members of The Power Rank.
To get this free service delivered straight into your inbox, enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”
Leave a Reply