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NFL player prop – Expert NFL analyst Clevta notes that numbers for Tennessee TE Chig Okonkwo differ drastically based on quarterback.
With Mason Rudolph, Okonkwo has had 18 targets the last two games and gained 59 and 81 receiving yards in those games. For the season, Okonkwo has had a target share of 19% with Rudolph and 11% with Levis.
Clevta projects Okonkwo in the low 40s for receiving yards against a Jacksonville defense that doesn’t defend tight ends well. There is value in Chig Okonkwo over 38.5 receiving yards, -113 at FanDuel.
Check out clevanalytics.com for all of Clevta’s insights.
College football playoff prop – Arizona State running back Cam Skattebo has had a fantastic season, averaging 5.96 yards per carry. However, it will get much more difficult against Texas in the college football playoff.
The Texas defense ranks 6th in my adjusted yards per carry. In addition, Texas is almost a two touchdown favorite, which probably means fewer carries for Skattebo in the second half.
Based on my adjusted numbers and his games this season, 5 yards per carry on 18 carries are generously high assumptions for Skattebo, which implies 90 rushing yards against Texas. There is value in Cam Skattebo under 99.5 rushing yards, -114 at FanDuel.
Boise State – On my 12 days of the college football video series, I talked about the weakness of Boise State’s schedule. It gets worse when isolating the opposing rush defenses.
To evaluate rush defense, I take success rate on rushing plays and adjust for opponent. Six of the 11 FBS opponents for Boise State ranked 112th or worse out of 134 FBS teams. In addition, Oregon ranks a surprising low 60th by my numbers.
Heisman runner up Ashton Jeanty faces a big jump in competition against Penn State. Members of The Power Rank have access to my full analysis and a spread bet on this game.
Jordan Love, Green Bay – At Unexpected Points, Kevin Cole uses play by play data to identify luck in quarterback play. For example, the quarterback has little control over drops, and Kevin calculates an expected drop rate based on the location of the pass.
Kevin also considers turnovers, sacks and yards after catch in adjusting the expected points added (EPA) for a quarterback. A surprising result is that Jordan Love of Green Bay tops the NFL in his calculation after week 16.
Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Jared Goff all have a raw EPA per play ahead of Love. However, Love inches ahead of Allen after the adjustments for luck. Check out Unexpected Points for all of Kevin’s insights.
NFL humor – “Merry Christmas, everyone! Here’s to the big guy who doesn’t start delivering until December and somehow keeps his job. Mike McCarthy.” Holiday humor from Annie Agar, courtesy of zero picks but seven bad balls from Cooper Rush the past two games.
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