James Franklin can’t win the big game. That is the narrative around the long time Penn State coach.
As evidence, Yahoo Sports claimed that Franklin has a 1-18 record vs Top 5 teams, a statement that I have not verified.
I find this narrative both amusing and misleading.
Coaches lose to great teams until you no longer lose to great teams. Think Jim Harbaugh against Ohio State before 2021 (won three straight from 2021-23). Think Tony Bennett of Virginia in the NCAA tournament before 2019 (won the tournament in 2019).
What matters in making a prediction for the college football playoff is how a team has performed this season, not historical long claims about what happened against top 5 teams.
This season, Penn State lost to Ohio State and Oregon, two of the best teams in the nation, by one score each. The margin in the games was 7 and 8 points respectively, but Penn State was competitive in both of those games until the end.
In their other 10 games, Penn State has dominated the opposition by both success rate and total yards. This shows up in my adjusted success rate:
- 2nd on offense.
- 12th on defense (5th before the Oregon game).
SMU might in a different class, as they started the season 29th in the preseason AP poll (ranking outside the top 25 done by points), a powerful predictor of team strength. My quantitative metrics had them even lower at 35th this preseason.
SMU has exceeded expectations with a 11-2 season. QB Kevin Jennings took over the offense in the fourth game, and this unit is ranked 35th in my adjusted success rate.
For an offensive coach in Rhett Lashlee, SMU has had a great defense the past two years. The 2024 defense ranks 18th in my adjusted success rate.
Despite SMU’s rise in my member numbers this season, my best prediction makes Penn State a double digit favorite (10.6). I like Penn State -8.5.
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