Looking for sharp sports betting action this weekend? Your curated list of tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.
Army vs Navy, College Football – Games between two option teams tend to have fewer points than data based models suggest. The defenses see the option in practice and are prepared to defend it.
Bob Stoll at Dr. Bob Sports notes that the under is 27-4 with 2 pushes in the last 33 games with Army, Navy and Air Force, teams that all run the option. His math model, which makes an adjustment two option teams, predicts 33.2 points.
There is value in Army vs Navy under 39.5, available at FanDuel.
NFL touchdown prop – Quantitative NFL expert Jim Sannes doesn’t think the sports books have properly priced the tush push, a play that gets quarterbacks touchdowns on plays close to the end zone.
Buffalo uses the tush push with Josh Allen, and Jim notes that Allen has scored a touchdown in 18 of 30 (60%) regular season games since the start of last season. In addition, he has scored two touchdowns in 5 of these 30 games (16.7%).
Buffalo at Detroit has a total of 54.5 points, which suggests lots of touchdowns. Jim thinks there is value in both of these bets on FanDuel:
- Josh Allen, +115 anytime touchdown scorer.
- Josh Allen, +850 for 2+ touchdowns.
Follow Jim Sannes for all his NFL and motor sports insights.
NFL interception prop – Arizona QB Kyler Murray has had a 2.0% interception rate this season, better than the 2.1% NFL average. However, the underlying metrics suggest that Murray has been fortunate not to throw more interceptions this season.
My interception model considers both interceptions and passes defended, or plays in which the defense gets a hand on the ball. The model gives a 53.7% chance that Murray throws a pick against New England, which suggests value in Kyler Murray over 0.5 interceptions, +100 at DraftKings (50% break even probability).
I consider this a lean, as I usually look for a model probability that exceed the break even probability by 5%. Members of The Power Rank will get those interception props at 11am this morning.
12 Nuggets on the College Football Playoff – On The Football Analytics Show podcast, I did a solo episode that includes an actionable nugget on each of the college football playoff teams.
I didn’t intend for the episode to end up this way, but I poked holes in each of the top 5 seeds yet found strengths in the next 5 teams. As the market suggests, this will be a very competitive playoff.
Check out the 12 Nuggets on the College Football Playoff in 2024.
College football humor – I try not to post a 8 minute video as the humor nugget, but I had to make an exception for this hilarious parody of the college football playoff selection by SEC Shorts.
If you’re short on time, my favorite part was on Penn State and Ohio State from 3:40 to 4:15.
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
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