Looking for sharp sports betting action this weekend? Your curated list of tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.
NFL Same Game Parlay – On The Football Analytics Show, Matt Freedman of Fantasy Life discussed a strategy for finding an edge in a same game parlay (SGP). The sports book assumes a relationship between the yards and touchdowns for a player, which determines the price of a SGP.
However, sometimes we guess there is no statistical relationship between touchdowns and yards. A player like Philadelphia QB Jalen Hurts will get his touchdowns no matter how many rushing yards he has because he gets those critical goal line carries.
Consider these two bets on Hurts:
- Anytime touchdown scorer, -175.
- Under 39.5 rushing yards, -113.
If these two quantities had no relationship, you should get a price of +200. Instead, a sports book like FanDuel gives a price of +257. There is value in putting these bets together in a SGP.
College football prop – Nate Frazier is a talented freshman that has led Georgia with 587 rushing yards this season. However, he started the season third on the depth chart. The two players ahead of him (Florida transfer Trevor Etienne and sophomore Branson Robinson) have been injured but might return against Texas.
In addition, Frazier faces a strong Texas run defense in a game in which Georgia is not favored (Texas -2.5 at a neutral site in Atlanta). If Georgia faces a second half deficit, this might reduce the number of carries for Frazier.
FanDuel had a rushing yards prop of 56.5 for Frazier yesterday but has taken it down, presumably due to the injury situation. However, you can still grab the value in Nate Frazier under 60.5 rushing yards, -117 at Caesars.
Penn State vs Oregon, Big Ten championship game – KillerSports gives you access to decades of market data. These trends can help your handicapping, as it gives situations in which the markets have historically been off.
For example, let’s look at two criteria that apply to Penn State vs Oregon:
- Both teams are coming off a blowout win of 20 or more points.
- The total is less than 53 points.
In all college football games since 2006 that meet these two conditions, the under hits at 58% (385-258). Presumably, the markets tend to overestimate offense after two strong showings in the previous game.
While I would not make a bet only because of this trend, this data supports other reasons why you might like under 50.5 in Penn State vs Oregon.
4th down decision making – On Thursday night, Detroit coach Dan Campbell made two 4th down decision to go for it with vastly different results.
- 4th and 1 from their own 31 yard line. Fail, one yard loss.
- 4th and 1 at the Green Bay 21, 0:43 left in the 4th quarter of a tie game. Success, seven yard gain.
Analytics get to play the contrarian on these two decision.
Based on Ben Baldwin’s 4th down decision bot, Campbell got the first play right despite the fact that the result led to a Green Bay touchdown. He got the second play wrong, as he lost 2.9% in win probability by not taking the lead.
NFL humor – This Bear’s parody song is incredible (1:26). Bye, Matt Eberflus.
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
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In ref to Killer sports, why did you use the cut off of 2006? JMO but any data prior to ātransfer portalā is suspect.
In regard to Dan Campbell going for it on own 31, he also risked losing the lead..which he did as Gbay tied it..
Also Detroit if all teams, doesnāt seem to have a play(s) designed to specifically to get 1 yard at a high percentage, e.g like Philly. For Detroit Iād say itās 50/50. ( luckily Goff didnāt fallš)
Enjoy your stuff
I presume it was difficult to get data before 2006. Thanks for reading.