Justin Herbert is considered one of the promising young NFL quarterbacks. He certainly looks the part at six feet six inches tall. The rocket arm helps as well.
From watching games, I don’t disagree with the potential of Herbert. However, let’s look at his actual production over the past three seasons.
Let’s focus on two key passing metrics:
- Success rate, a metric that captures the context of each play.
- Yards per pass attempt, a metric that includes negative yards from sacks.
The numbers for Herbert are adjusted for opposing defenses with my proprietary algorithms. The results are expected quantities against an average NFL pass defense. We would expect a 42.7% success rate and 6.22 yards per pass attempt for an average NFL pass offense:
- 2024: 39.3% success rate, 6.40 yards per pass attempt.
- 2023: 42.6% success rate, 6.08 yards per pass attempt (missed the last 4 games due to injury).
- 2022: 41.8% success rate, 6.11 yards per pass attempt.
These are Kirk Cousins type numbers, right at NFL average.
These numbers would look worse had the Chargers not drafted WR Ladd McConkey. The rookie has been Herbert’s top target and has a stellar 2.38 yards per route run this season. This is much better than the 1.5 NFL average that the other Chargers WRs Quinton Johnston and Joshua Palmer have posted this season.
In my analysis for members of The Power Rank, I’ve expressed doubt about the Chargers defense. Due to injuries, they were starting two rookies at cornerback at one point this season.
However, after 13 weeks of data, it’s hard to deny the numbers. The Chargers are 1st in adjusted passing success rate and 4th in adjusted yards per pass attempt. Still, there is more volatility in defensive than offensive performance.
Kansas City has been fortunate all season, as they have a perfect record 9-0 in one score games. Regression didn’t happen last week, as Las Vegas botched a snap before they could kick a game winning field goal in the final moments of the game.
The week before, Kansas City let a bad Carolina team keep the game close. They lost to Buffalo the week before in their only loss of the season.
The underlying metrics still like this Kansas City team, which makes this a solid buy low spot on the Chiefs. My best numbers like Kansas City by 5.9, and there is value in Kansas City -3.5 (available at FanDuel).
Football betting with a PhD edge
This article was sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter at 12:30pm Eastern on Friday, December 6, 2024. This newsletter is a free service that strives to be:
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