Looking for sharp sports betting action this weekend? Your curated list of tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.
College football player prop – Down 10 points to LSU in the second half, Texas A&M inserted QB Marcel Reed for the struggling Connor Weigman. Reed scored three rushing touchdowns to lead the Aggies to a 38-23 win.
In four of five SEC games with significant playing time, Reed has rushed for 46 or more yards even though sack yards count against his total. Texas will no doubt focus on limiting Reed’s rushing production, but the explosive runner will not hesitate to take off in this huge rivalry game.
There is value in Marcel Reed over 34.5 rushing yards (-114 available at FanDuel although I encourage line shopping).
Los Angeles Chargers at Atlanta, NFL Week 13 – NFL expert Clevta notes the multiple factors workings against the Chargers in this game:
- Last week, the Chargers played on Monday night while the Falcons had a bye.
- The west coast Chargers play at 1pm Eastern time on the east coast.
The last time this happened, the Rams lost at Miami as a 3.5 point favorite.
Clevta didn’t bet the spread based on this analysis. However, my member numbers at The Power Rank, which only consider the bye week advantage, have Atlanta by 2.5 points. These factors suggest value in Atlanta +1.5 vs the Los Angeles Chargers.
Check out all of Clevta’s excellent NFL analysis at his website.
NFL player prop – At Fantasy Life, Geoff Ulrich sees a bounce back game for Rhamondre Stevenson. The New England running back only played 29 snaps in a blow out against Miami last week, but this week’s contest versus Indianapolis should be more competitive.
In addition, Indianapolis has allowed the 7th most receiving yards to running backs. The Fantasy Life model projects 15.0 receiving yards for Stevenson, and he has been efficient in converting targets from QB Drake Maye of late.
There is value in Rhamondre Stevenson over 10.5 receiving yards (-115 available at DraftKings as of Saturday morning).
College basketball predictions – Members of The Power Rank get access to college basketball predictions the day before the games happen. Here are two predictions for Saturday that were posted yesterday:
- Houston will beat San Diego State by 13.7 at a neutral site. Houston might have losses to Auburn and Alabama this season, but Kelvin Sampson’s team is still number one in my college basketball numbers.
- Alabama will beat Oregon by 7.6 points at a neutral site. Alabama point guard Mark Sears is back for his 5th year of college basketball, and he will shoot better than his 34.1% rate on three pointers this season.
NFL humor – “You’re aware to get into the playoffs, it’s not by invitation. You have to win enough games.” Jim Gaffigan’s delivery as football fan therapist is impeccable (1:38).
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
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