You are pumped for the first 12 team college football playoff, and you want to know the chance that each team will win. With the most recent selection committee rankings, The Power Rank is equipped to give you the results you crave.
These win probabilities start with the member college football rankings that I calculate each week. The model uses play by play and market data from each week to adjust the ratings of all 134 FBS teams.
Note that this model is different from the public, points based model posted at The Power Rank.
After a stellar week 12, the member college football spread predictions are 54.4% against the closing market in the 2024 season. The model has a 248 wins and 208 losses along with 10 pushes in games in which the prediction differs from the market by a point or more.
Based on these member college football numbers, here are the national championship win probabilities for the 12 playoff teams (see image above for the bracket):
- Ohio State, 27.9%.
- Oregon, 15.1%.
- Texas, 11.8%.
- Georgia, 11.2%.
- Penn State, 9.9%.
- Mississippi, 7.2%.
- Alabama, 6.7%.
- Miami (FL), 4.5%.
- Notre Dame, 2.5%.
- Indiana, 2.1%.
- Boise State, 0.7%.
- Brigham Young, 0.2%.
The results for Ohio State are curious, since they do not have a bye in the first round by the current rankings. The playoff bracket assumes that Oregon wins the Big Ten and is the top seed. However, this is actually an advantage for Ohio State.
In the bracket, Ohio State plays BYU at home before facing Boise State at a neutral site. I doubt that Boise State will get the fourth bye instead of the Big 12 champion, but that’s what the committee rankings have right now.
Based on these match ups, Ohio State has a 75.8% chance to make the semi-final. It helps that Ohio State is the top team in my member college football rankings, although 7th ranked Texas is less than 4 points behind.
Oregon gets to sit out the opening round of the college football playoff. However, they face the winner of Alabama at Notre Dame, two elite teams. My numbers give Oregon a 56.6% chance to make the semi-final, much less than Ohio State.
The model doesn’t consider the injury situation for Ohio State. This week, center Seth McLaughlin tore his Achilles in practice and won’t play the remainder of the season. Earlier this season, the Buckeyes lost left tackle Josh Simmons.
The championship odds at FanDuel for Ohio State have not changed because of the McLaughlin injury (+320 to win, 23.8% break even probability).
Football betting with a PhD edge
This article was sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter at 1pm Eastern on Friday, November 22, 2024. This newsletter is a free service that strives to be:
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The predictions are based on my PhD research from Stanford, and the content covers college football and the NFL.
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