Looking for sharp sports betting action this weekend? Your curated list of tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.
College football rushing prop – Penn State has used Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton as the primary running backs over the past two seasons. However, Singleton left last week’s game with an injury. While he might play against Purdue, his workload should at least be diminished.
My rough model predicts 74.5 rushing yards for Allen, but he should get more than the 16.3 carries he has averaged in Big Ten games. In addition, Purdue is awful by Big Ten standards for stopping the run (106th in my adjusted yards per carry).
There is value in Kaytron Allen over 74.5 rushing yards, -114 available at FanDuel.
Cleveland at New Orleans, NFL Week 11 – On the Forward Progress podcast, two professional NFL bettors, Fabian Sommer and Hitman, agreed on Cleveland in this game.
The New Orleans offensive line has a bad match up against a strong Cleveland defensive line. In addition, both bettors noted that Cleveland has a better overall roster than New Orleans.
There is always the danger of a Jameis Winston interception that could tip this game, and the market has moved towards Cleveland since this podcast was released on Wednesday. But there is value in Cleveland, and Cleveland +1 is available at MGM on Saturday morning.
Washington State at New Mexico, College Football Week 12 – New Mexico’s defense is awful. However, Bob Stoll of Dr. Bob Sports notes that their offense is good enough to stay in this game with Washington State.
New Mexico rush attack averages 7.0 yards per carry. According to Bob’s numbers, they face a Washington State defense that has allowed 6.0 yards per carry to FBS teams that combine to average 5.0 yards per carry against an average defense.
Bob leans New Mexico +11, and +10.5 is widely available as of Saturday morning. In addition, my numbers at The Power Rank predict Washington State by 5.3 points.
Anthony Richardson – The Colts will go with the second year QB after a less than stellar two games with Joe Flacco as the starter. Despite his high upside, accuracy and decision making have been the huge issue for Richardson.
After my opponent adjustments, Richardson had an expected passing success rate of 27.7%, way worse than the NFL average of 42.5%. The Colts hope that Richardson can revert to the 41.3% adjusted number he posted as a rookie.
The accuracy also shows up in his bad ball rate, or the fraction of times he throws a pick or lets the defense get a hand on the ball. Over the past two seasons, Richardson has a bad ball rate of 17.5%, way worse than the 12.1% NFL average. Bad ball rate is a strong predictor of future interceptions.
NFL humor – Said to Jared Goff after five interceptions on Sunday night: “You had so many terrible picks it was like watching the Bears try to draft a quarterback.” Brandon Carney kills it in his QB meeting for this week.
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
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