Kansas City is 7-0 in one score games this season. This screams regression to the mean of 0.500.
I’ve been known to scream about this regression. In 2022, this same fraud detector was on high alert as Minnesota rumbled through the regular season 11-0 in one score games. Those Vikings lost to a less than inspiring New York Giants team in the Wild Card playoff.
However, there is a huge difference between Kansas City in 2024 and Minnesota in 2022: the underlying metrics support Kansas City as one of the best teams in the NFL. Even though they won’t continue to win all of their one score games, they should actually be favored at Buffalo this weekend.
The Kansas City passing game has not generated many explosive plays, as the Chiefs rank 15th in my adjusted yards per pass attempt. Many have bemoaned how boring the offense has become, as Patrick Mahomes has averaged 5.6 air yards, lowest in the NFL.
However, Kansas City makes up for it in efficiency. After my opponent adjustments, Mahomes has a predicted 49.7% passing success rate against an average NFL defense (42.5% league average). Only Lamar Jackson and Baker Mayfield rate better. (Check out this article as a primer on success rate).
The Kansas City defense continues to excel, as it ranks 10th in adjusted passing success rate but 1st in adjusted yards per pass attempt. In addition, the Chiefs can actually slow down the run game this season, ranking 3rd in my adjusted success rate. Kansas City has ranked in the bottom 10 in each of the previous three seasons.
Buffalo started the season about 3 points better than NFL average. After 10 weeks of football, the market and play by play data suggest that they are indeed about 3 points better than NFL average. The offense has been better (12th in my adjusted passing success rate) than the defense (18th).
The passing game was fine without newcomer WR Amari Cooper last week against a bad Indianapolis defense. However, Cooper is questionable again, as he was limited in practice on Thursday. TE Dalton Kincaid didn’t practice at all on Thursday, and rookie WR Keon Coleman is out again.
It will be much more difficult for Josh Allen and the passing game to thrive against Kansas City this week. My numbers like Kansas City by 1.7 points at Buffalo, and the cluster injuries to the pass catchers for Buffalo should push the prediction more in favor of the Chiefs.
There is value in Kansas City +2.5 at Buffalo, a number available at FanDuel on Friday.
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