Looking for sharp betting action this weekend? Your curated list of tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday morning at 10am Eastern.
NFL interception prop – Kyler Murray has thrown only 3 interceptions this season. He has a 1.2% interception rate this season, much better than the NFL average of 2.2%.
However, a 1.2% interception rate is unsustainable. No NFL quarterback with at least 1000 pass attempts since the start of 2022 has a pick rate this low.
In addition, Murray puts the football in dangerous situations more often than NFL average, and my model gives a 55% that he throws a pick against the New York Jets. There is value in Kyler Murray over 0.5 interceptions, +115 at DraftKings.
Members of The Power Rank get access to two additional NFL interception props as well as all my data on NFL quarterbacks on how often they put the football in dangerous situations (bad ball rate).
NFL rushing prop – On The Football Analytics Show podcast, Ryan Noonan of 4for4 Football discussed a dilemma for New England QB Drake Maye: his offensive line sucks.
Maye has had to run for his life as he has rushed for 38 or more yards in three of his four starts. Ryan sees more rushing for Maye as he faces Chicago in week 10, and he likes Drake Maye over rushing yards up to 30 rushing yards (28.5 is available at FanDuel as of Saturday morning).
College basketball predictions – At The Power Rank, I post spread predictions for all college basketball games. Just like in college football, the model tends to be aggressive in moving teams based on recent performance and market data.
Here are a few predictions available to members of The Power Rank:
- Tennessee will beat Louisville by 0.9 points on the road. Pat Kelsey takes over Louisville after a successful three year run at Charleston.
- Kentucky will beat Bucknell by 20.4 points at home. Mark Pope takes over Kentucky after John Calipari left for Arkansas. Pope spent the previous five seasons at BYU and played on the 1996 Kentucky national championship team.
- Houston will beat Auburn by 1.9 points at a neutral site. These are the top two teams in Ken Pomeroy’s college basketball rankings. The Auburn flight to this game yesterday had to turn around because two players got in a fight.
The value in Heisman betting – Edward Egros put up a fascinating chart that notes that half of the past six Heisman winners had at least 10-1 odds at the start of November:
- 2023 – Jayden Daniels, LSU.
- 2020 – Devonta Smith, Alabama.
- 2018 – Kyler Murray, Oklahoma.
It seems like 2024 could be another year for this to happen. QBs of undefeated teams like Cameron Ward of Miami and Dillon Gabriel of Oregon must be taken seriously as favorites.
However, perhaps a QB like Kurtis Rourke of undefeated Indiana has a chance (20-1). He will have an epic opportunity against Ohio State in two weeks to make his case. Edward’s insight suggests a close look at the Heisman market.
College football humor – The teacher scolds the SEC teams in detention: “I want you to not rely on our conference prestige and influence having an undo effect on committee member voting. That may have worked on FSU last year, but do you think it will work on Indiana? Probably…”
Funny because it is true, as undefeated Indiana starts at 8th in the first committee rankings.
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
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