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College football rushing prop – Michigan RB Kalel Mullings had his worst game of the season against Michigan State, as he rushed for 18 yards on 13 attempts. However, the markets might have moved too much on Michigan’s top rusher.
An 8-0 Oregon team is a big favorite to remain undefeated at Michigan. However, the weakness of this Oregon team is the run defense, as they rank 59th in success rate and 56th in yards per carry by my adjusted numbers.
By my conservative estimates, I project 82.5 rushing yards for Mullings. There is value in Kalel Mullings over 60.5 rushing yards at FanDuel (a rushing prop set in the 90s last week against Michigan State).
NBA player prop – The Unabated NBA team notes Philadelphia guard Tyrese Maxey has maintained elite turnover numbers given his high level of offensive involvement.
Without star Joel Embiid last season, Maxey averaged 1.8 turnovers per 36 minutes in a large sample. This rate has dropped to 0.9 this season, and Embiid will not play tonight against Memphis.
There is value in Tyrese Maxey under 2.5 turnovers at DraftKings, and the Unabated team would play this up to -125. Check out all the amazing tools and services that Unabated offers for the NBA.
NFL teaser – On The Football Analytics Show, trusted NFL analyst Clevta talked about the following two team, six point teaser:
- Philadelphia -1.5 against Jacksonville (teased from -7.5, -115).
- Kansas City -2.5 against Tampa Bay (teased from -8.5).
Note that the six point teaser goes through the key numbers of 3 and 7 for both games, giving an edge over the sports books.
The market has moved to Kansas City -9.5 at some sports books, so a six point teaser would not move through the key number of three. Do not bet this teaser at these sports books. In addition, the market might move back towards Tampa Bay, so it may make sense to wait on this teaser until Sunday before Philadelphia kicks off at 4pm Eastern.
Turnover machine – Jameis Winston has been a turnover machine. In 2019, he threw a whooping 30 interceptions with Tampa Bay, his last season as a full time starter.
In a small, more recent sample size, Winston still seems like a danger to throw a pick. Based on data since the beginning of the 2022 season, my model gives Winston a 63.5% chance to throw at least one interception against the Los Angeles Chargers.
While market have wisely put most QBs near 50-50 to throw a pick, they are consistent with my numbers on Winston. DraftKings has -185 for Winston over 0.5 interceptions, a 64.9% break even probability.
Cleveland has a very winnable home game against the Chargers, but Winston is always a threat to lose the game with a turnover.
A remarkable NFL video – Even worse than this PFF coverage grade of 52 this season, Chicago’s Tyrique Stevenson got caught taunting fans during the hail mary against Washington (watch the first :20). It’s funny if you’re not a Bears fan.
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
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