Jedd Fisch knew he was starting over at Washington. The offense that led the Huskies to the national title game in 2023 lost six starters to the first three rounds of the NFL draft. Six!
Under Fisch, Washington has struggled to a 4-4 record in 2024, their first in the Big Ten. They have suffered double digit losses in their last two games at Iowa and Indiana.
However, Washington is not has bad as their record suggests, as they should have beaten Washington State and Rutgers earlier this season. My member college football rankings use a combination of market and play by play data to come up with predictions that have been better than the opening market this season (more on that later). In these rankings, Washington has moved up from 38th preseason to 28th now.
The rebuilt Washington offense has been better than expected, as they rank 25th in my adjusted success rate. (For a primer on success rate, check out last week’s newsletter on Navy vs Notre Dame.) They are better at throwing the ball, as veteran QB Will Rogers leads the 14th ranked pass offense by adjusted success rate.
USC opened the season with a strong defensive performance against LSU. However, this unit has declined over the season, and they rank 49th in my adjusted success rate.
In addition, the USC defense is dealing a cluster of injuries in the secondary. These starters missed the previous game against Rutgers:
- CB Greedy Vance.
- S Kamari Ramsey.
- CB Jaylin Smith.
- CB Jacobe Covington (missed last three games).
All four of these players returned to practice on Tuesday but are listed as questionable at Washington. USC has also lost edge rusher Anthony Lucas and LB Eric Gentry for the season.
The USC offense continues to excel under Lincoln Riley. With QB Miller Moss, the offense ranks 13th in my adjusted success rate.
USC’s offense should have the advantage over Washington’s 24th ranked defense. However, Washington is strong against the pass (4th in adjusted success rate).
The advantage of the offenses over the defenses is the primary reason my model predicts 60.4 points in this game. There is value on over 55.5 points in USC at Washington.
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This article was sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter around noon Eastern on Friday, November 1, 2024. This newsletter is a free service that strives to be:
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