Looking for smart sports betting action this weekend? Your curated list of tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.
Unabated NBA prop – Like they did for the WNBA, Unabated is offer an NBA prop predictions service. For Saturday’s slate, they are focused on Nicholas Batum of the Los Angeles Clippers against Denver.
Batum played near his ceiling for minutes on opening night but only attempted two field goals. He only scores on catch and shoot opportunities, and Denver allowed the 2nd fewest corner three attempts in the league last season.
The Unabated team likes Nicholas Batum under 5.5 points up to -130 (-119 is available at Caesars on Saturday morning, and the game tips at 5:10pm Eastern). Check out all the NBA player prop services at Unabated.
Penn State at Wisconsin, College Football Week 9 – Penn State travels to Madison with their undefeated season on the line. Professional bettor Mike Craig and college football betting expert Bud Elliott note that Wisconsin takes a huge step in competition after facing Purdue, Rutgers and Northwestern.
On the Cover 3 podcast, Bud also discussed that Penn State faces back up QB Braedyn Locke. On that same podcast, Tom Fornelli thinks that Penn State wins on both lines of scrimmage.
With all three of these sharp bettors in agreement, there is value in Penn State -6.5 at Wisconsin (game kicks off at 7:30pm Eastern).
NFL receiving prop – On the Move the Line podcast, Connor Allen notes all the factors working against Indianapolis WR Michael Pittman Jr.
- Pittman has been dealing with a back injury this season and didn’t seem 100% last week against Miami.
- RB Johnathan Taylor is back, which could reduce the number of targets for Pittman.
- QB Anthony Richardson has struggled this season.
Connor discussed Michael Pittman Jr. under 49.5 receiving yards on the podcast, and under 48.5 is still available at FanDuel on Saturday morning.
Caleb Williams – The rookie QB for the Chicago Bears has played well in recent weeks. However, it’s important to look at the quality of the opposing defense.
Let’s look at the passing success rate for Williams for the last four games compared with the NFL average of 42.2%. I’ve also listed the defensive rank of the opposing defense after my schedule adjustments.
- 41.8% at Indianapolis, 32th.
- 50.0% vs Los Angeles Rams, 13th (However, CB Darious Williams didn’t play, and CB Ahkello Witherspoon didn’t play a significant number of snaps).
- 50.0% vs Carolina, 27th.
- 59.4% vs Jacksonville (in London), 29th.
While these numbers are impressive against any NFL defense, the competition has been lacking.
Williams gets two more poor pass defense in Washington (31st) and Arizona (28th) before the competition gets tougher.
NFL humor – “What strategies would you give someone to cope with this pain of seeing Aaron Rodgers play every Sunday?”
“Marijuana. Gummies. Lots of them.” Hilarious 0:51 clip from The Offensive Line with Annie Agar.
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
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