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Carolina at Washington, NFL Week 7 – Pro bettor Rob Pizzola thinks that the Carolina defense has sunk to a historically bad level. They are simply missing too many players to compete at the NFL level.
In addition, Carolina plays a high rate of Cover 3 defense. This is recipe for disaster against Washington QB Jayden Daniels, who has a 57% success rate against this defensive scheme.
Rob sees the Commanders scoring at will, and he believes Carolina will score enough points late to go over the total. Rob likes Carolina at Washington over 51.5 points.
Check out all of Rob’s insights on The Forward Progress podcast, my favorite NFL betting podcast.
College football player prop – Michigan’s Kalel Mullings has taken over as the primary running back, as he has averaged 6.47 yards per carry compared to 4.84 for Donovan Edwards.
Mullings should reach his yards per carry average against Illinois, a team with a rush defense ranked 94th in my adjusted yards per carry. This unit is even worse in rushing success rate.
To go over 81.5 rushing yards, Mullings would only need 13 carries at his season average. Mullings has had more than 13 carries in each of the past four games. There is value in Kalel Mullings over 81.5 rushing yards at FanDuel (Michigan at Illinois kicks off at 3:30pm Eastern).
Same Game Parlay – On The Football Analytics Show, Connor Allen of 4for4 Football talked about using negative correlation to find value at FanDuel.
For most receivers, receptions and receiving yards have a strong positive correlation. However, this is not always true, as some receivers like Jameson Williams of Detroit don’t get targeted often but are capable of explosive plays. A same game parlay (SGP) with the under on receptions and the over on receiving yards can have value.
In addition to Williams, Connor also suggested a player like Washington’s Terry McLaurin, who has averaged 14.9 air yards this season, more than the 11.2 of Williams. On FanDuel, a SGP with McLaurin under 4.5 receptions and over 63.5 yards pays +954.
The Unabated Line – The Unabated line aggregates the best sports book to get a sharp market opinion. I love using this is part of their odds screen.
On Friday morning around 11:40am, the Unabated line showed value in these college football markets, meaning the Unabated line differed from the value at DraftKings and FanDuel by a point or more. I’ve noted how the market as followed the Unabated line as of Saturday morning.
- Miami, FL at Louisville over 59.5, moved to 60.5.
- South Carolina +1.5 at Oklahoma, moved to -1.
- LSU at Arkansas over 56.5, moved to 57.
Over the past two weeks, I’ve found the Unabated line to be a good predictor of line movement from Friday to Saturday. Here are two games that still have value:
- Alabama at Tennessee over 56.5 at FanDuel (Unabated 58).
- Kentucky at Florida under 42.5 at FanDuel (Unabated 41.5).
Learn more about the suite of software tools for sharp sports bettors at Unabated Sports.
NFL humor – Putting the NFL theme music makes this nine second video clip even funnier. Good luck with the Jets, Davante.
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
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