Take a moment to let a fact sink in: Ohio State at Oregon is a Big Ten conference game.
Cool, let’s get onto the analysis.
I had my doubts about Ohio State’s offense coming into the season as they brought in QB Will Howard from Kansas State. It is strange for an elite program to take a quarterback who might not have started at his former school. Avery Johnson, or little Michael Vick as I like to call him, is the starting QB at Kansas State.
However, Ohio State’s offense has been excellent, as they rank 3rd in my adjusted success rate.
Ohio State is slightly better at the pass (3rd in adjusted success rate) than run (7th). Howard has elite talent at WR, as Emeka Egbuka and Jeremiah Smith are averaging 3.83 and 3.68 yards per route run. Values over 3 are excellent in college football.
In the run game, transfer Quinshon Judkins from Ole Miss has gotten more carries (60) than incumbent TreVeyon Henderson (42). Both are gaining 7.8 yards per carry, much higher than the 5.1 college football average.
Ohio State faces Oregon’s 15th ranked defense by my adjusted success rate. The Buckeyes should have the advantage.
Oregon’s offense has seemed to struggle, as they only scored 24 points against Idaho. In addition, QB Dillon Gabriel threw two red zone picks against Michigan State. However, the underlying metrics look much better, as they are 12th in my adjusted success rate.
Ohio State’s defense ranks 12th in my adjusted success rate, as they have a roster full of talented players such as:
- Edge rusher Jack Sawyer, 4 sacks and top PFF defensive grade.
- Safety Caleb Down, the transfer from Alabama who has the top PFF coverage grade (81).
Still, Oregon should get their share of points and keep this game close. The market has Ohio State -3 on the road, and my member college football numbers have Ohio State by 2.7 points.
The total is more interesting from a betting perspective, as my totals model has almost 63 points for this game. The market started at 51 when I posted the predictions on Sunday and moved to 52.5 when I posted this analysis for members on Wednesday.
Now, there is still 53.5 available, and I’d lean towards the over based on my numbers.
Football betting with a PhD edge
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