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College football team totals – On two of the bigger games on Saturday, Bud Elliott of the Cover 3 podcast said that he liked these bets because of the strength of the opposing defense.
- Washington under 21.5 points, -130 vs Michigan.
- South Carolina under 21.5 points, -120 vs Mississippi.
At The Power Rank, I take success rate and adjust for opponents to evaluate defense. Here are the latest rankings for the two defense in question, which agree with Bud’s analysis.
- Michigan, 5th.
- Mississippi, 2nd.
Members of The Power Rank get access to all of my adjusted success rates in college football. See below about the added benefits of becoming a member this week.
Indianapolis at Jacksonville, NFL Week 5 – The free NFL analysis page at Dr. Bob Sports notes that Jacksonville’s Josh Hines-Allen got a concussion last week. The star pass rusher is likely out against Indianapolis, and the Dr. Bob model makes Hines-Allen worth 1.7 points.
For Indianapolis, QB Anthony Richardson has struggled against the blitz but has averaged an excellent 8.3 yards per pass play against a standard pass rush. Jacksonville leads the NFL with a standard pass rush on 82.1% of pass plays.
After weather adjustments for potential rain, the Dr. Bob model predicts 48.5 points, and they lean over 46 points. The free NFL analysis over at Dr. Bob Sports contains a wealth of data driven information and match up analysis.
Carolina at Chicago, NFL Week 5 – On The Football Analytics Show, NFL betting expert Fabian Sommer expects more points in this game than the market.
Chicago has made small changes to the offense, such as asking rookie QB Caleb Williams to take short gains over going deep. In addition, Chicago faces a Carolina defense that Fabian thinks might be the worst in the NFL.
On offense, veteran QB Andy Dalton has given Carolina a huge boost over Bryce Young. Fabian notes that Carolina has one of the best pass blocking units in the NFL, and Dalton helps by not taking sacks.
Fabian likes Carolina at Chicago over 41.5 points. In addition, he talked about how he predicts injuries by relying on the work of experts like Deepak Chona, MD and another bet on the Monday night game, a must listen conversation on The Football Analytics Show.
Jayden Daniels – Washington’s rookie quarterback has been excellent through four games. Daniels has a 53.0% passing success rate, much better than the 41.9% NFL average.
Daniels did face an atrocious Arizona pass defense last week. After adjusting for opponents with my proprietary algorithm, Daniels is predicted to have a 49.1% passing success rate against an average NFL defense. Only three quarterbacks are better at this point in the season.
In addition, Daniels has thrown one pick, and it hasn’t been luck. He is not putting the football in dangerous situations, as he has a 6.5% bad ball rate, much better than the 12.0% NFL average this season.
New to these statistical concepts? These past newsletters give a concise summary of success rate and bad ball rate.
Daniels has been so excellent that some regression is inevitable. However, Washington seems to have made a solid choice with the second overall pick in 2024 draft.
NFL humor – Travis Kelce might have a few non-football distractions in his life. This one minute sketch from Brandon Carney is hilarious.
Become a member, help Hurricane Helene victims
Hurricane Helene has ravaged the southeastern part of the United States, with over a hundred deaths and millions without power. If you become a member of The Power Rank, 30% of your first year membership will go to support Hurricane Helene victims.
I’m considering either Red Cross or the East Tennessee Foundation as the recipient of these funds, but I’m open to suggestions. If you have knowledge in the non-profit space, leave a comment below.
Members of The Power Rank get instant access to my best college football and NFL predictions. In addition, my weekly football analysis has an assortment of bets based on my numbers. There will be NFL interception props released at 11am Eastern this morning (Saturday, October 5).
If you become a member of The Power Rank before kick off of the Monday night game between New Orleans and Kansas City, 30% of the first year of your membership goes to support hurricane victims. To learn more, click here.
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