These two teams had vastly different outcomes last week, and it is impacting the spread that favors Cincinnati by 4.5 points at Carolina.
After two awful performances by Bryce Young, Carolina went to Andy Dalton in week 3 against Las Vegas. The veteran immediately delivered with a 36-22 win. Dalton had a solid but unspectacular 43.6% passing success rate (41.4% NFL average through 3 weeks).
Carolina had six pass plays of 20 or more yards. There is a random element with these explosive plays, so do not expect 36 points every week from this offense.
In contrast to the success of Carolina, Cincinnati lost to Washington 38-33 and dropped to 0-3 for the season. The offense was fine, but the defense got shredded by rookie QB Jayden Daniels. Excluding end of half kneel down drives, Washington had six possessions and scored five touchdowns and a field goal.
There are some concerns for Cincinnati’s defense, as they rank 24th in my adjusted passing success rate in 2024. It seems like they are looking for answers in the secondary. CB DJ Turner II started last season but has only played 11 snaps this season. Dax Hill is now the starting CB across from Cam Taylor-Britt.
Still, Cincinnati’s defense ranks better than Carolina’s defense (27th). Cincinnati has star edge rusher Trey Hendrickson, while Carolina is trying to replace edge Brain Burns with Jadeveon Clowney. Carolina also lost star LB Frankie Luvu, who had 14 sacks the past two seasons.
On offense, there is no question that Cincinnati with QB Joe Burrow is better than Carolina. In addition, WR Tee Higgins played his first game of the season against Washington last week, and the star WR should produce more in the coming weeks alongside WR Ja’Marr Chase.
Carolina got better at receiver this off season by adding Diontae Johnson and drafting Xavier Legette in the 1st round. Andy Dalton is a solid NFL veteran, but the ceiling for this offense is NFL average.
In the latter part of the 2023 season, I upgraded my member predictions by making them specific to the quarterback. The prediction of Cincinnati by 5.6 points only uses data from Andy Dalton.
In addition, when the quarterback changes, I dump the preseason component for a team. However, because of the weakness in their defense, there is still signal in the preseason rankings for Carolina. The preseason wisdom of crowds model, which has been 54.6% against the spread the first six weeks of the season, would have made Cincinnati a 9.1 point favorite over an NFL worst Carolina team.
There is value in Cincinnati -4.5 at Carolina.
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