This preseason, the consensus was that Alex Orji would start for Michigan at QB. It was a surprise when Davis Warren started week 1 against Fresno State.
After three Warren interceptions against Arkansas State in week 3, Michigan benched the former walk on quarterback. Orji will start against USC at home this weekend.
I think this is a mistake. Let’s evaluate the quarterback by success rate, a metric that captures the context of down and distance. A two yard gain has much different consequences on 4th and 1 versus 1st and 10.
For the offense, a play is a success if they gain the following fraction of yards towards the next first down:
- 50% on 1st down.
- 70% on 2nd down.
- 100% on 3rd, 4th down.
Warren had a 39.5% passing success rate, right at college football average. He had 5.59 yards per pass attempt (which includes negative plays from sacks), not as good as the 6.31 college football average.
You might argue that some of Warren’s successful plays came in garbage time against Texas, as he stayed in the game in the 4th quarter when the outcome was already decided. Warren was successful on five of six passes on the last touchdown drive. But for the entire 4th quarter, he had a 50% success rate (8 of 16). This garbage time result helps his numbers, but they do not skew his numbers wildly.
Warren was making good throws, and I thought the Michigan pass offense had potential with him. However, he did not survive his third interception against Arkansas State.
Orji has 2 touchdown passes this season, his two successful plays on six pass attempts. He had zero pass attempts last season as a running option behind JJ McCarthy. It is anyone’s guess how Orji will throw the football against USC.
After a track record of failure the past few seasons, USC’s defense looked solid against LSU in an opening week win. They were especially good against the run, with a 19.2% success rate allowed. Was this a small sample? How will they do against a Michigan run game that had an excellent 61% rush success rate against Arkansas State?
USC’s offense should be good to great, as head coach Lincoln Riley has a fantastic reputation for offensive success. Led by first year starting QB Miller Moss, USC had a passing success rate of 61.5% against USC.
My best college football model likes USC by 0.5 points on the road. The numbers showed value in Michigan +5.5 when these predictions were posted earlier this week, and the market has shifted to 4.5.
However, there is too much uncertainty with the quarterback change for Michigan and small sample size on USC’s defense for me to bet this spread.
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