Looking for sports betting action this weekend? Your curated list of tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.
NFL passing prop – On the Move the Line podcast, Connor Allen made the case for Detroit QB Jared Goff to excel this week. Tampa Bay plays a lot of zone defense, and Goff completes 72% of his passes against zone defense.
In addition, safety Antoine Winfield will not play for Tampa Bay, and CB Zyon McCollum is questionable with a concussion. Connor likes Jared Goff over 269.5 passing yards, -113 available at FanDuel as of Saturday morning.
Connor and Ryan Noonan also had me on the Move the Line podcast this week to talk NFL spreads. Also, check out their Friday show on NFL props every week.
Air Force at Baylor, College Football Week 3 – Bob Stoll is the gold standard in football handicapping, as he has been winning for over 30 years. Each week, he offers his free analysis on college football games at Dr. Bob Sports.
This week, he notes that an option team like Air Force does not perform well against coaching staffs that know the option. Air Force only scored 7 point against San Jose State, a team coached by Ken Niumatalolo who ran the option at Navy.
Bob suggests not overreacting to Air Force’s performance last week. He would lean Air Force +17 at Baylor, but the market has moved to +16.5 on Saturday morning. However, check out his lean in Oregon at Oregon State, the only one of eight leans this week to not have moved out of range.
Member predictions – In the Thursday newsletter, I usually give predictions saved for members of The Power Rank. I forgot this week, so let’s look at a few.
- CFB. Alabama will beat Wisconsin by 13.1 points on the road. Alabama QB Jalen Milroe had a 40% passing success rate against South Florida last week, right at college football average. Alabama travels to this tough out of conference game before hosting Georgia next week.
- NFL. Los Angeles Chargers will beat Carolina by 4.5 points on the road. As much as QB Bryce Young struggled last week, the market has moved towards Carolina. Circa has moved from Chargers -6.5 to -4.5 as of Saturday morning.
- NFL. Houston will beat Chicago by 6.5 points at home. Houston won a close two point game over Indianapolis last week, but the margin could have been larger. Indianapolis QB Anthony Richardson had 60 and 54 yard touchdown passes against Houston in week 1, and there is more volatility in the result of long passes.
Members of The Power Rank get access to all of my best college football and NFL predictions.
Free drawing for audiobook – My audiobook The 60 Minute Guide to the 2024 Football Season tells two long form stories on how I apply football analytics to betting.
- The first story uses Josh Allen to explain how to predict interceptions. In addition, his story of how the entire industry of college football passed on him is insane.
- The second story describes the surprising way to make accurate NFL spread predictions. This method is particularly useful the first six weeks of the season and the playoffs.
You can listen for free on Spotify with certain plans. Click on this link and see if it says “Included with Premium.”
Otherwise, enter this random drawing for a code to let you listen for free on Spotify. 10 winners will be selected on Tuesday, September 17 at noon Eastern.
Football humor – Before the game last week, a sideline reporter told Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman that his QB Riley Leonard said he had a conservative approach against Texas A&M but today he wants to “test the limits.” Freeman said this about his quarterback:
If we start trying to make plays and throw the ball down the field, then all of sudden we are playing out of character. Just do exactly what we want you to do, and the rest will take care of itself.
Not exactly a vote of confidence for your quarterback, who would throw two interceptions in a massive upset loss to Northern Illinois.
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These nuggets were sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:
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Other emails offer analysis of college football and NFL games that founder Ed Feng has bet and a sample of predictions usually saved for paying members of The Power Rank.
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