Looking for sports betting action this weekend? Your curate list of tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.
New York Jets at San Francisco, NFL Week 1 – On The Football Analytics Show podcast, professional bettor Rob Pizzola talked about how he wanted to bet San Francisco early in their Monday night game against the New York Jets.
Aaron Rodgers did not play in the preseason, and Rob is not confident in Jets OC Nathaniel Hackett. He is more confident in the ability of San Francisco coach Kyle Shanahan to call successful plays against the Jets defense.
Rob talked about a first half bet, and San Francisco -2.5, -125 in the first half is available at FanDuel. Rob also discussed his NFL betting process and whether the NFL prop market is sharp in a must listen episode of The Football Analytics Show.
NFL season long sack prop – Edge rusher Montez Sweat went to Chicago from Washington after week 8 of the 2023 season, and he had a career high 12.5 sacks during the regular season. However, Sweat never had more than 9 sacks in any previous season.
Seth Walder of ESPN has put together a sack model that considers metrics like pass rush win rate and opposing quarterback sack rate (subscription required). In my own analysis, I’ve found sack rate to be as predictive as any QB statistic. His model predicts 8.1 sacks for Sweat with the Bears in 2024.
In addition, Sweat had a pressure rate of 12.5% according to PFF data in 2023. This is better than the 10.3% average for edge rushers over the past 3 seasons but not elite like the 19.9% for Micah Parsons of Dallas. Sweat is Chicago’s best pass rusher, so he can expect double teams all season.
This suggests value in Montez Sweat under 9.25 sacks, -126 available at FanDuel. Follow Seth Walder for all of the results of this sack model, as I had a nice win on Green Bay’s Kenny Clark under 0.25 sacks last night versus Philadelphia.
Texas at Michigan, College Football Week 2 – Despite a 52-0 win over Colorado State, Bill Connelly of ESPN notes some holes in Texas’s performance (subscription required). They were conservative in the pass game, as 25 completions were thrown an average of 3.9 yards downfield. Quinn Ewers threw one pass 20 or more yards downfield, and it was an interception.
Michigan has its own problems in the passing game with surprise starter Davis Warren at QB. Michigan did not convert any of seven situations with 3rd down and seven or longer against Fresno State. Michigan wide receivers caught six passes for 34 yards against Fresno.
With a market total that has dropped from 42.5 yesterday to 41.5 this morning, expect a defensive struggle in Ann Arbor.
Betting insights – On The Unabated Podcast, Rutgers statistics professor Harry Crane discussed the boring way to find an edge in political markets: read the house rules.
For the US presidential election, some markets decide the bet on who the AP reports as the winner while others go with the person sworn into office in January. Professional bettor Gina Fiore chimed in and said she spends half of her time reading terms and conditions. As a friend of mine once told me, boring makes money.
I also made an appearance on The Unabated Podcast to talk about The 60 Minute Guide to the 2024 Football Season, my audiobook on football analytics and betting.
Football humor – Brandon Carney kills it in this comedy sketch on Baltimore at Kansas City. “You’re not worried about Mark Andrew’s new job moonlighting as a magician and making himself disappear?” So worth a minute of your time.
It is also worth noting the fan that said “If Florida State loses to BC this weekend, I will eat dog sh*t out of a red solo cup with a spoon and posted a video of me doing it. Book it.” The fan @321nole deleted his social media accounts after Boston College dominated at Florida State.
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
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