Looking for sports betting action this weekend? Your curated list of tips and analytics, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.
Notre Dame at Texas A&M, College Football Week 1 – On the Cover 3 podcast, college football expert Tom Fornelli talked about how the defenses have fewer question marks than the offenses for both teams. In addition, Bud Elliott expects more run plays, as the opposing offenses should fear the pass rush.
In particular, Bud thinks Notre Dame QB Riley Leonard runs a lot. Running the ball means fewer points, and both Tom and Bud like the under in Notre Dame at Texas A&M. FanDuel has under 47.5, -110, and the game kicks off at 7:30pm Eastern on Saturday.
Third Overrated College Football Team – Texas had a fantastic 2023 season, as they went 12-2 and made the college football playoff. While they are 4th in the preseason AP poll, two factors suggest that Texas will not sustain that rank.
First, Texas lost eleven players to the NFL draft, the largest number of players besides Michigan. While QB Quinn Ewers returns, Texas will rely on transfers at key positions like receiver and cornerback.
Second, Texas was not a top team in 2023 by advanced metrics. The Power Rank evaluates teams by taking metrics like success rate and yards per play and adjusting for strength of schedule. Texas ranked 9th in 2023.
To sustain their preseason rank, Texas has to improve but regression is more likely. Texas is overrated at 4th in the preseason AP poll.
In identify overrated college football teams since 2015, I have been right on 16 of 23 teams by my grading. Check out the most recent episode of The Football Analytics Show for a more in depth look my 3 overrated college football teams for 2024.
NFL interception prop – Last season, Dallas QB Dak Prescott had an excellent interception rate of 1.7%, much better than the NFL average of 2.3%. However, this turnover prevention is most likely unsustainable.
As I explain in The 60 Minute Guide to the 2024 Football Season, interception rate is a poor predictor of future interceptions. Instead, my research has shown that bad ball rate, which captures how often a quarterback puts the football in a dangerous situation, is a better predictor of future interceptions.
Assuming 500 pass attempts for Prescott, my model predicts 11.1 interceptions in 2024. He actually had 590 pass attempts in the 2023 regular season. This suggests value in Dak Prescott over 9.5 interceptions, +100 available at DraftKings.
Members of The Power Rank have access to three more NFL season long interception props.
Sign Stealer documentary – Former Michigan analyst Connor Stalions tells his side of the sign stealing scandal that rocked college football in 2023. The end of this Netflix documentary Untold: Sign Stealer even has footage of a meeting with Stalions and the NCAA.
For me, I most enjoyed the look at the Stalions manifesto on how to run Michigan football. He constructed a digital map with every NFL draft pick to help with recruiting.
College football humor – Lincoln Riley’s USC defenses have been bad. Now we know why. Definitely worth 12 seconds of your time.
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
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